And you don't have to wait for anything. Everything is stable to the point of unambiguity. And only external instabilities can somehow influence our “swamp”, in terms of shaking it, forcing us to look for a new average-stable state.

How will the year go for the economy, is another devaluation of the Belarusian ruble possible?

And here, on the whole, it is stable ... bad. The crisis is not over yet, oil has not yet decided to steadily rise in price, and the fall in energy prices may well reach $10 per barrel. You know, addiction Russian ruble from oil and gas prices directly affects the Belarusian ruble, which has recently been pegged even more strongly to the Russian one in a basket of currencies. They will have to fall together. It is quite probable that the Russian exchange rate Ruble up to 120-150 per dollar. Well, the creeping devaluation of our new ruble by half. For 4-5 rubles. per dollar. All this is likely next year.

Is there a threat to Belarus of catastrophes, accidents, riots?

Large man-made disasters can not be expected, but rather large accidents are predicted. Primarily associated with the elements of fire: fires, explosions. Specifically, of course, I won’t indicate the time and place, here, as they say, “where it’s thin, it breaks there.” Those. It can happen in any place where prerequisites and conditions are created for the activation and manifestation of the fiery element of the year. Well, the element of the masses this year is also unstable, unpredictable. Possible, but not required, riots and speeches for unpredictable reasons in advance. The authorities will also not be able to predict what the people will not like to the point of protest. In addition, the protest mood of the year is strange - the energy of the year is similar to the word "show off". And this means some actions will be strange, which in other years the activists of the action would not have dared to do. Yes, and then they will remember themselves according to the type: damn it, what got into me, what fried rooster pecked me?

What actions need to be taken in 2017 to CEO Belarusian company in order for the year to be financially successful?

Something similar to the strange behavior of the protesters should be in the head who can succeed in this stable depression year. Those. unexpected (for others, for the market) actions, moves, innovations and business schemes can make a breakthrough. Creativity, especially paradoxical creativity, is the basis of success in the new year.

Once you made a prediction that the historical mission of Belarus is to become the center of the unification of the West and the East, is this prospect still relevant?

This prospect remains, but it is a prospect of a distant future, not during the lifetime of the current president, not during our lifetime, to be replaced by 2-3 generations. There will probably even Baltic-Black Sea Union (BCS) centered in Belarus or Poland. The reduced EU under the banner of Islam, the Christian center - BChS, and the North from the countries of Scandinavia and the republics in place of the European part of Russia.

How will the economies of Europe, China, and the USA develop in 2017? Should we be afraid of the disappearance of the euro as a currency (you made such a forecast in 2011), the fall of the dollar?

The end of December is a traditional time for summing up and making plans for the future.

“After celebrating the New Year according to Western custom - January 1 - we will meet the Eastern (Chinese) New Year: it will begin on the "Aquarius" new moon (the Fire Rooster will come into its own on January 28). On March 21 - on the day of the spring equinox - the astrological, or natural New Year will come. These dates with their rhythms have a positive impact on our lives: they are the harbingers of spring. Indeed, after the winter solstice on December 21, daylight hours began to grow, and the sun began to give more and more light and heat. In March 2017, a new 36-year cycle begins, which means that in the coming year we will see the emergence of new trends in the economy, politics, technology, and consumer priorities. Time for a change - that's what to expect. It is difficult to “catch” a new wave in time, but those who can do it will feel the taste of victory,” she said. Galina GAYDUK, astrologer of the AstroGEO laboratory of the Avestan School of Astrology.

WORLD EVENTS

Let's start with the most important astronomical events that will set the tone for the main rhythms of the year. These include four eclipses: two solar and two lunar. They will occur in pairs - February 11 and 26, August 7 and 21 with a certain sequence: first - a lunar eclipse, and then - a solar one. Please note that for one month before and after the eclipse, there is a zone of both geoclimatic and geopolitical instability. An example is the earthquake in Italy on August 24, 2016 and a number of subsequent seismic disturbances. Recall that long-distance travel is not recommended at this time, especially to seismically active zones. During this period, there is an increase in the number of man-made disasters and more frequent cases of inadequate behavior of people with a mobile psyche. Observations show that for people born on dates shortly before or after which eclipses occur, the year can be busy, but not necessarily negative. This is especially true for those born in 1941, 1960, 1979 and 1998 under the signs of Aquarius and Leo, as well as Scorpio and Taurus. During the period of eclipses, the likelihood of cardiovascular diseases and strokes increases. Although these tendencies are strictly individual, try not to overexert yourself during this period.

ECONOMIC TRENDS

Countries with economies oriented towards the domestic market will be in the most advantageous position. World currencies will be in a fever. Warning signs will appear from March to May, but this is only a harbinger of the coming systemic crisis. The eurozone is at particular risk. In August-September, events in the United States may develop according to an unexpected scenario: the August eclipses resonate with geographic location country and the horoscope of the new president. The most difficult period is the end of next year. Periods of currency fevers are possible before or shortly after February 6, March 4-15, June 9 and December. It is unreasonable to spend money on things of expensive brands, it is more expedient to take care of a practical and rational investment of finances. Do not forget to replenish food supplies: the harvest year will not be everywhere. Strengthening the borders is another important task that should not be neglected. The ability to trade by barter will come in handy. The main thing is prosperity in the country, and not only money. Sharp turns can play a cruel joke: the weakest will become the strongest and vice versa.

GEOCLIMAT AND GEOPOLITICS

February, April, July, August, December will be problematic months of the coming year in geoclimatic terms. The calmest months are May, June, October, November. It is important to note that policies depend on general trends in the economy and climate. Geopolitical instability is expected in February, March, April, July, August, December. May, June, November will be relatively calm.

The regions of tension in the first half of the aura of the February eclipses will be Central and South America, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Australia, the Caucasus, etc. And in the second half - Central and North America, the Arabian Peninsula, Turkey, central Russia, Caucasus, Krasnodar Territory, Crimea, Ukraine, Malaysia, China, Bangladesh, Burma, Thailand, etc.

August eclipses will determine stress zones: in the first half - South and North America, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Northern and Western Europe, Siberia, etc.; in the second half - Central and South America, Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, Algeria, Libya, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Nepal, Bhutan, Mongolia, etc.

According to other indicators, significant events can occur in the following places: in North America, Alaska, the Pacific Ocean, the European part of Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Belarus, Spain, Italy, Egypt, Iraq, Thailand, Mexico, the Czech Republic, Portugal, Serbia, Canada, Ethiopia.

There is still a possibility of major earthquakes in the United States, in the waters of the Black and Mediterranean Seas, the echoes of which can reach Belarus. Unfavorable resonant dates, before and after which geoclimatic revolutions and man-made accidents can occur: January 1, March 3 and 30, April 6-10, 20, 28, May 3, 25, June 9, July 1, 3-4, 13, August 25, September 9, 16, 28, November 22, December 3-4, 19, 23.

According to the AstroGEO laboratory of the Avestan school of astrology, general trends will affect Belarus to one degree or another.

The recession in Belarus will continue next year, although the depth of the economic downturn is expected to be lower compared to 2016. The possible reaction of the state to such a situation causes a lot of discussion in expert circles. In particular, various options for the political consequences of unresolved economic difficulties are discussed.

According to experts, the next year will be a period of groping for the bottom for the Belarusian economy. Illustration: CC0

The economy will find a bottom

The recession in Belarus has been observed for two years already, and in 2017, according to the forecast of a number of experts, the GDP of Belarus will also remain in the red. The staff of the International Monetary Fund expects the economic downturn to be 0.5%, economists at the IPM Research Center predict a decline in GDP by 0.9%, similar expectations are shared by experts from the World Bank, as well as analysts from other organizations.

“Apparently, the decline in GDP will be about 1%. Next year will be a period of groping for the bottom of the economy, although this does not mean at all that it will be possible to quickly push off from this bottom and go up.", - noted in a comment for BelaPAN senior analyst at forex broker "Alpari" Vadim Iosub.

In his opinion, the continuation of the recession, albeit on a smaller scale than in 2016, next year is a very likely scenario.

« Under the policy of limiting the money supply, which is being pursued by the National Bank to reduce inflation, the real sector does not show an increase in output. Therefore, rely on the economic growth in 2017 there are no grounds yet, sources for this growth are not visible", - says Vadim Iosub.

Observers therefore expect that difficult times in the economy will continue, and the situation will somewhat resemble 2016.

“The main expectations are related to the fact that next year we will see a continuation of the chronic recession. The problem is that the bottom that the economy can find is unlikely to be satisfactory in terms of the standard of living of the population., says the economist Sergey Chaly.

At the same time, observers note that under such a scenario, relative economic stability in the country will continue.

"Return to soft monetary policy will not happen in 2017, since such a reversal is fraught with inflation and devaluation”, Vadim Iosub predicts.

Supporters of this scenario also believe that a prolonged recession will not lead to an increase in social discontent, and therefore the authorities will not need to take steps to strengthen their position.

“In 2011, the population became impoverished three times in a matter of months, and that situation did not have serious political consequences. Therefore, they are unlikely to arise next year against the backdrop of the ongoing recession,” suggests Sergei Chaly.

Meanwhile, the authorities themselves recently announced a possible change to the Constitution, and therefore some observers still admit that, against the backdrop of chronic problems in the economy, noticeable changes in political life will occur.

What will the Belarusian “wise men” decide?

In October, speaking in Parliament, Alexander Lukashenko announced possible changes constitution soon.

« New problems, challenges have appeared, and time, probably, requires something new. And we must start with the main thing, if we decide on this. We need to create a group of wise men, lawyers, who will analyze the Basic Law. And if necessary, we will go for it.- said the Belarusian leader.

The subsequent chronology of events was very interesting. The Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus initiated a constitutional referendum and proposed to bring the issue of extending the term of presidential office to the nationwide discussion.

In turn, the head of the Central Election Commission Lydia Yermoshina said recently BelaPAN, that an increase in the presidential term could "contribute to the stability of society."

So the possibility of announcing and preparing a referendum in 2017 should not be discounted, experts say.

« The economic situation will play a decisive influence on the actions of the authorities. These may be decisions to stimulate the economy, it may be the announcement of a referendum. Next year will most likely go down in history as a period of difficult but important decisions, which, among other things, may also affect the political system of the country.", - suggests the economist Anton Boltochko.

In addition to extending the presidential term, observers believe that other issues may be put to the referendum.

« It is possible that the ballots will include the question of the need economic reforms so that later the authorities could justify any unpopular measures. The referendum may be scheduled, among other things, in order to divert the attention of the electorate from the economic difficulties that the country is experiencing.”, - says the head of the Mises Scientific Research Center Yaroslav Romanchuk.

At the same time, he suggests that preparations for the referendum may coincide in time with the steps taken by the authorities to stimulate the economy. “Negative consequences of such a policy, of course, will be, but they will appear after the referendum”, - predicts Yaroslav Romanchuk.

In turn, other observers note that such a scenario of the development of events cannot be ruled out, but it is very risky for the authorities themselves.

« Opportunities to stimulate the economy, including raising wages to , exist only through emission, but it will lead to inflation and devaluation, respectively, will reach prohibitive values. Such a scenario of development of events is very risky in terms of consequences.", - says Anton Boltochko.

Therefore, even in the event of a referendum, the economist believes, it is by no means a fact that its preparation will be accompanied by an administrative increase in salaries to the promised $500.

“Over the course of a number of election campaigns in Belarus, there has been a correlation between electoral cycles and growth in incomes of the population. However, in 2015, despite the presidential elections, the authorities did not take this step, and in 2016, when the parliamentary elections were held, salaries were not increased as directed by the top,”- reminded Anton Boltochko.

Thus, as we see, different scenarios for the development of events are possible both in the political life of the country and in the economic one. Which path will the government choose? Probably, the “wise men” who will be entrusted with wooling the Constitution will make proposals for changing it. And whether the authorities will use them depends on the depth of the problems that the economy will face next year.

2016 ended with yet another aggravation of economic disputes between Minsk and Moscow: Belarus considers the price of Russian gas too high, and Russia calculates and reminds its neighbor about the growing debt. On the eve of the new year, Alexander Lukashenko refused to go to St. Petersburg to sign the Customs Code of the Eurasian Economic Union, however, he then approved it, but only as a basis for negotiations.

Political scientist Andrey Yegorov, head of the Center for Political Transformation, believes that Minsk in 2017 will continue to implement a cautious exit from Moscow's tutelage.

Andrey Egorov: The contradictions between solving the problem of institutional building of a really independent state and moving away from satellite dependence on Russia - it will be solved somehow. But at the same time, to leave in such a way as not to incur particularly sharp gestures from the “big brother”. With Europe, I think, everything will again go on knurled. That is, we will move towards gradual improvement, unless some excesses happen, which again our government is fraught with: that is, it can brutally disperse someone, beat, imprison, accidentally kill, not accidentally kill, and so on. And this can cause an aggravation of relations, but if such excesses do not happen, then they (official Minsk and Brussels - RFI) fill the scope of the planned relations.

In 2015 and 2016, Minsk managed to fend off Moscow's obsession with hosting a military air base in Belarus, but as military observer Andrei Porotnikov notes in a commentary for RFI, the likelihood of a return of the problem this year is quite high. At the same time, as the expert emphasizes, from a practical point of view, the Kremlin no longer needs such an airbase: the concentration of troops on the western border of Russia allows Belarus to be ignored in the confrontation with NATO. But the air base in Belarus is a serious argument within the Russian society on the eve of the 2018 presidential elections in Russia.

Andrey Porotnikov: As for the unified air defense system, after the adoption of the S-400 systems, Russia is able to monitor the situation in the airspace of almost the entire Belarus from its territory, the radius of application of the new radar stations is 600 kilometers. According to the characteristics declared by the manufacturer of the S-400 systems, they are able to control more than half of the airspace of Belarus with their air defense systems from their territory. This is a purely image, political issue. And ideological: to show that this (Belarus) is Russia's zone of influence, and the rest have nothing to do here. This base does not carry any practical consideration from the point of view of Russia's security. But it creates problems for the security of Belarus.

As for relations with Europe, which noticeably warmed up in 2016, then, according to Andrey Porotnikov, nothing “revolutionary and breakthrough” will happen here.

Andrey Porotnikov: The Belarusian authorities do not understand the West, they do not perceive Western values... And let's be frank, they are not going to go to any West or to any Europe. All this is rhetoric with the aim, firstly, to expand the field for political maneuver, and secondly, to obtain additional financial resources in the form of direct support, credit support or in the form of investments. Well, plus, of course, to enter the European markets. No more. All parties understand this, Europe also sees it very clearly. The second point: the European Union is not up to Belarus now. A lot of internal problems, the upcoming presidential elections in France, a government crisis in Italy, an incomprehensible situation with elections in Germany, how Brexit will be held, Trump's position - Europe will be busy with internal issues and issues of maintaining transatlantic unity. This is the agenda for the next two years - and there will be no time for Belarus.

Denis Melyantsov, senior analyst at the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, in turn, believes that the development of relations between Belarus and the EU will bring quite tangible results in 2017.

Denis Melyantsov: In 2017, it is likely that the Visa Facilitation and Readmission Agreement with the EU will finally be signed. There is a high probability of cancellation or, according to at least, revision of the quotas for Belarusian textiles by the European Union. New opportunities for financing from EU funds will open up for Belarus.

Alexander Lukashenko three times in December 2016 mentioned his order to raise average salary in Belarus from the current 350 to 500 dollars a month. Vadim Iosub, senior financial analyst at Alpari, emphasizes that such growth is only possible with the printing press turned on, as the country's economy has been declining for two years in a row. “Growth is possible, but only for a short time. The economy will respond with inflation - and after a short-term rise in salaries, they will drop below the current ones, to $300 a month,” Vadim Iosub believes.

Vadim Iosub: Moreover, if we analyze the most serious collapses national currency over the past few years - both in 2011 and the end of 2014 - each of these collapses was just preceded by an administrative increase in average wages. It seems to me that it is no longer a secret to anyone that it is impossible to print money for wage growth for one simple reason: it does not work. Short-term wage growth ends in a collapse. Moreover, now Belarus very much hopes to receive the next tranches of the EurAsEC Anti-Crisis Fund loan, hopes to conclude loan program with the IMF - neither one nor the other organization, obviously, will support such an artificial increase in wages at the expense of the printing press. Most likely, in this way (by statements about wage growth) they are clumsily trying to calm the population. But the futility of such an increase in wages at the expense of the machine is already obvious not only to everyone in the government, the National Bank, to any sane economist, but it is already obvious to the general population. Such statements are already causing not so much a positive effect, but exactly the opposite reaction from the population: an increase in inflationary and devaluation expectations.

The financial analyst notes that one should not exaggerate the impact of the Russian crisis on the Belarusian one. The Belarusian model has completely exhausted itself at the moment and will fall even with the growth of its neighbors, Vadim Iosub believes.

Vadim Iosub: The main causes of the Belarusian crisis are not problems in Russian economy and low oil prices. This is an extremely inefficient structure of the Belarusian economy. And even the beginning of growth in Russia, stable oil prices with such a structure of the Belarusian economy will help the Belarusians little. At best, this can help move the economy from falling to stagnation, but growth should not be expected. Talk about reorientation to other markets, about the influx of some foreign investment- this, roughly speaking, talk in favor of the poor. There are no products in the Belarusian economy that, given the existing production costs, can be of interest to someone in the world in large volumes. There are no queues of foreign investors wishing to invest or perhaps bury their money in the Belarusian economy either.

According to the financier, with the start of reforms in 2017, in three to five years, one could count on a small but steady growth. “But the political will for reforms is not yet visible,” said Vadim Iosub.

But what is visible? In his New Year's greetings, Alexander Lukashenko said that 2017 "should be a turning point and give a powerful impetus to the development of the country." The head of state intends to stake "on the creation of new industries and jobs, the revitalization of business." “The standard of living of the people should be much higher than today,” said Alexander Lukashenko. - This is not easy to achieve. However, no matter what the cost, we will significantly increase the incomes of citizens in the coming year.”

By the end of 2016, political relations between Minsk and Moscow reached a record cold snap. Moreover, neither Moscow nor Minsk see prospects and ways to improve them. Both sides remained at their grievances and do not compromise. In December, Russia did not agree to any Belarusian option for resolving the "oil and gas crisis", postponing negotiations on the supply of hydrocarbons to 2017. The Minsk leadership, in turn, arrested three Russian journalists on its territory, and the country's President Alexander defiantly ignored the CSTO and summits, where Moscow plays a leading role.

The Kremlin is demanding "more loyalty for the same money" from its ally. Meanwhile, the Belarusian leader is demonstrating to the Kremlin: “red lines” have appeared that he should not cross, otherwise the crisis will become full-fledged and acute.

For Lukashenka, apparently, fears of spoiling relations with Russia are no longer relevant. They are already corrupted, and therefore the Belarusian leader feels more freedom of maneuver. He is maneuvering towards the West, with which, throughout 2016, Lukashenka successfully restored relations that had once been destroyed. At the same time, some Western politicians are more and more attentive to Belarus as a bridge to Russia and expect to influence Moscow through work with Minsk.

Winter Is Coming

“There are no ideological differences between the countries, but Russia expects that Belarus will begin to fulfill its earlier obligations to sell industrial facilities of interest to it. These are, as a rule, profitable assets,” says Viktor Yevmenenko, an expert at the Belarus Security Blog analytical project. “The Belarusian government will definitely not go for the privatization of profitable assets, as it regards privatization as a loss of power, which will put it in a more vulnerable position.”

Belarus is demanding lower prices and more energy supplies to support its economic model. Therefore, in 2017 we should expect that the position of Minsk in negotiations with Russia will only become tougher.

However, according to the interlocutor of Gazeta.ru, despite the severity of conflicts in the economic sphere, the Belarusian side will continue to assure the Russian side of love and fidelity, as well as show gestures of goodwill - like the removal of the Russian flag at the Paralympics or the declaration of joint mourning for the tragedies in Russia.

This scenario can be called the most probable. and Alexander Lukashenko will continue to greet each other, there will be no serious political progress, and in the economy, all interstate frictions will be reduced to "conflicts between business entities."

In economic terms, the use of oil and gas arguments will continue, and controversial issues will remain in limbo. It is already known that this year Belarus will receive reduced volumes of oil, 18 million tons instead of the promised 24 million tons. The next year will probably be the same.

The situation with the access of Belarusian products to Russian market. The creation of a unified agricultural supervision service of the Union State has already been postponed indefinitely, so the claims of Russian inspection bodies to Belarusian products will probably remain. In response, the official Minsk may make threats: declare its refusal to create a new Russian military base on the territory of Belarus, as well as the reorientation of Belarusian transit to the ports of the north-west of Russia.

Minsk will not receive subsidies and new loans from Moscow, and therefore will continue to build cooperation with the EU. Here we should expect the signing of agreements on cooperation between Belarus and the EU with Brussels. Only the rhetoric of the Belarusian leadership about the “fraternal peoples of Russia and Belarus” will be preserved.

"Hybrid" rumors

The change of power in Minsk is one of the most discussed scenarios by the Belarusian expert community. Here are the December headlines of major Belarusian media: “Does Moscow have a power scenario for Belarus?”, “Russia has decided to remove Lukashenka from power”, “Lukashenko's days are numbered”.

Fears that Belarus could become the next field of a “hybrid war” have appeared in Belarusian society since 2014. Suffice it to recall how quickly the military doctrine of Belarus was changed, where the concept of “hybrid war” was included.

The discussion of the “hybrid” scenario in Belarus reached its apogee by the end of 2016. This time it all started with data that in 2017 he plans to send to Belarus and take back 4162 wagons with troops and military cargo. This figure was found by Belarusian journalists in the documentation of competitive bidding for military freight transportation in direct international rail traffic for the needs of the RF Ministry of Defense. The news shocked the Belarusian public, since in 2015 and 2016 such transportations amounted to only 125 and 50 wagons, respectively.

With this, an active controversy began as to whether Russia would implement a forceful scenario against Belarus if Minsk continued to flirt with the West. Later, it was fueled by both the arrests of pro-Russian publicists and the resignation of the leadership and reshuffling of the Belarusian General Staff.

As the coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign stated on December 28, the special services recently showed Lukashenka documents that confirm the existence of a plan in the Kremlin to remove the head of Belarus from power. So the cleansing in the upper echelons began. According to these data, Lukashenka did not go to the EAEU summit for the same reason - in order not to shake hands with Putin.

How intelligent people

Much in 2017 will depend on how events unfold within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Kremlin's ambitious integration project in the post-Soviet space. In other words, the most significant attempt in 25 years to restore a single economic space on the territory of the former USSR.

During the two years of the existence of this union, Russia (as the leader of this union) did not have any problems only with Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. There are frictions with Kazakhstan, but so far they are not critical. With Belarus, however, problems arise constantly, and most often in the format of a scandal.

We saw the last such scandal quite recently, on December 26, when Lukashenka defiantly did not appear at the EAEU summit in St. Petersburg and, accordingly, did not sign the Customs Code, a key document for the economic union.

Meanwhile, regional integration platforms give Alexander Lukashenko a chance to restore relations with Moscow. To do this, it will be enough to stop sabotaging the initiatives of the EAEU and engage in the implementation of the declared goals of the union: building a single economic space, a free trade zone, free movement of people, and harmonization of national legislation.

“I think that the problems that were this year will continue in the next year. I'm not looking forward to an easy year. But everything will be different if our officials defend the national interests of Belarus more rigorously. In the situation with agricultural products, gas, and a lot of things, there is a need to talk with Russia, ”Oleg Gaidukevich, deputy chairman of the opposition, told Gazeta.Ru.

In his opinion, Minsk needs to “talk tough” about its interests and “ultimately find common ground.” “It is necessary to explain that if we are building the Union State, declaring that we are fraternal peoples, then we must behave accordingly, and not be petty because of various things,” he added.

In turn, Belarusian MP Alena Anisim believes that the main thing for relations between Minsk and Moscow in 2017 is the culture of dialogue. “I proceed from the desired development of events. I think that the time has come for relations between Belarus and Russia to develop in a civilized and mutually respectful manner, without whipping up negative emotions,” Gazeta.Ru’s interlocutor said.

“I believe that intelligent and cultured people should set the tone in relations between our countries. Then all issues will be resolved on a mutually beneficial basis,” Anisim believes.