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Blog of a private stock exchange investor. How the laziest investor in the world lives and prospers |
Good afternoon, dear readers! As I promised, this week there will be an interview with a fairly well-known person in the field of investing. He maintains his blog "The Homebody Investor", and it was he who inspired hundreds (if not thousands) of people to take up this difficult business - investments. Meet - Vasily Dedlovskikh! In an interview, Vasily spoke about how he came to the world of trading and investment, his vision of this business and made some forecast for the future of this industry. If you have any questions, you can ask them in the comments! OK. Vasily, tell us a little about yourself
The most basic: how old are you, where are you from and how do you live (hobbies, hobbies)
OK. How exactly did you get into the world of investments and Forex trading? What was first? Investment or trading?
Well, how do you evaluate your success in the trading market?
Yes I saw. But if I'm not mistaken, does a robot trade there?
That is, you are quite positive about trading robots, right? And by what system, by the way, does your robot work?
Yes, the adviser that works on your PAMM account
Yeah, I understand, well, I meant by “your job”, the robot that you use 🙂 Okay, let's continue the topic of trading. Why did you choose DC FX open? After all, there is Alpari, Pantheon, FX Trend after all?
Kohl, we touched the fx trend. Don't you think Pantheon Finance has something to do with it? Because they have a lot in common.
Don't you think of them as "kitchens". after all, something strange happens: Forex Trend is a fairly young DC (compared to the same Alpari), but it has many millionaire accounts, while few DCs can boast of such statistics. And as far as I understand, the trading conditions for traders there are not the most ideal?
Well, because a lot of talk is about the "kitchen" of such offices. By the way, since we are talking about HYIPs: what do you think will happen to this industry next? After all, I don’t see anything like this with the scam of Gamma and Vladimir.
That is, do you think that hypes like Gamma and Vladimir are a thing of the past, and they will be laughed at by “like dts”, like milka?
I agree. What do you think: can something happen to mmsis?
By the way, how do you see the system of regulation of this market from the side of the law? what will have to be sacrificed, but what will each of us gain?
And how would you like to see the system of regulators from a professional point of view?
OK. Recently, the so-called binary options have become popular. What is your relationship with them?
Okay, what is an investment for you? What are your goals in doing this?
I got it. And he meant something else: many people invest in order not to work, others - in order to buy an apartment, others - for retirement. I'm interested in your goal in this regard
Okay, I understand you 🙂 And what do you think, Vasily, what are the prospects for the Internet investment industry: how will it develop, what should we move towards? Do you have an opinion on this?
Well, have you considered (or are considering) any alternatives to PAMM accounts? After all, many people criticize Forex: they say that this is generally an investment in something that is not clear, and so on.
Understood. Are you considering an alternative to Forex?
Today, many sites on the Internet have their own target audience. One such resource is the lazy investor blog. Its owner Alexey, who has been active in investing on the Internet since 2012. He has gained some experience in various areas of investment and readily shares it with site visitors. Consider the most profitable from his point of view ways of making money on the Internet. Investing in PAMM accountsRecently, the blog of a lazy investor has been especially active in focusing on investing in PAMM accounts. It also says that most often money-hungry investors turn their attention to HYIPs. However, such projects can close at any time, so you should not trust them, as, in other words, even study their features. The success of investing in PAMM accounts, according to the blog of a lazy investor, depends on the competent choice of a manager who will manage the depositor's money. The rule here is that the higher the return, the higher the risk. Therefore, aggressive earning strategies may carry an increased threat to capital preservation. The author of the blog decided to work with an average yield of 1 percent in 7 days. Someone may say that this is an insignificant amount, but when reinvesting for a year, about 64% of the profit is obtained. Of course, someone wants to earn more, but in this case, you will have to take an order of magnitude more risk. If you wish, you can triple the initial amount in a year, but aggressive trading is fraught with high risks. Personal experience of the blog authorThe author of the blog of a lazy investor says that he started working with GAMMA. Then it was large and seemed reliable, because it allowed to receive a stable profit. In addition, at that time Alexey did not know about PAMM funds or PAMM indices, in which you can start even for $100 investment activity. The money earned on GAMMA was lost on other HYIPs, so the blog owner is no longer experimenting with investing money at a high percentage. If you want to earn a lot on interest, remember MMM-2011 and its offspring. It is noteworthy that Sergei Mavrodi's electronic resource is still functioning. Someone even invests in it at 45% per month, but such things should be alarming. The reason is simple - this money does not make money, this is an ordinary pyramid that someday will definitely collapse. However, the blog of a lazy investor does not discuss such schemes, the site presents only proven and reliable methods, which are distinguished by good transparency. Will be a great alternative. Of course, they will not allow you to get such profitability, but they will be directed to the real sector of the economy, which means they will bring benefits. Russian Federation and help you earn a lot of money. If the amount is small, where can it be placed?The blog owner of a lazy investor recommends investing a small amount in the Forex currency market. This does not mean that you need to keep a close eye on yourself and try to buy low and sell high. The best way is to contact brokerage companies that offer good PAMM services. On the foreign exchange market you can start earning even with a small investment. There is nothing to do with such amounts on the stock market, since they are not enough to form a more or less significant investment portfolio. The main advantages of investing in PAMM accounts are: Of course, we have not considered all the investment opportunities that the lazy investor's blog offers visitors. However, on our website you can find much more useful information. For example, it may relate to the current or. We also have practical information on how to find a reliable investor and increase your chances of attracting their money to develop your business. This text is one of them. In the generally accepted view, a professional stock market participant is an overactive person who is constantly on the phone and daily processes tons of paper and gigabytes of electronic information on stocks, bonds, futures and other securities. But Steve Edmundson, manager of a government pension fund in the US state of Nevada, has his own recipe for success. It consists in just three words: "Do nothing." Who cares about this Brexit?Edmundson's strategy, which he described in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, is simple: activity in the stock market should be reduced to a minimum. He is the only employee at his Nevada public employee pension investment company. He has almost no business meetings, he does not track the quotes of attractive assets. In his office there is no Bloomberg terminal, an invaluable tool in the hands of a trader, nor a connection to the CNBC business channel. But that hasn't stopped him from becoming a more successful pension manager than many investment companies with hundreds of employees. Behind the news lazy investor' doesn't really follow either. The price of oil and the results of the US presidential election do not worry him. The 44-year-old manager tries to keep abreast of the statements of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, but rarely reacts to the intentions of the American regulator with any real steps. Edmundson says his goal is not to beat the market, but to keep costs down to a minimum. This shows up even in small things. At the office, he eats food brought from home in Tupperware plastic dishes and does not order lunches. “I don’t want to spend $10 a day for lunch,” the investor explains. The results are in. The funds he manages have been more profitable over periods of one and three years, five and ten years, than California's largest public pension fund (Calpers). True, a resident of Nevada is somewhat easier: he manages assets of 35 billion dollars, and at the disposal of Californians - 300 billion. Edmundson's predecessor in this position, Ken Lambert, now the fund's sole adviser, however, notes that doing nothing in the financial world is often more difficult than showing some kind of activity. If only because you need to constantly keep yourself from actions in the market - even when you really want to. Edmundson is constantly getting calls and emails from money managers across the country offering a wide variety of products and investment options, but according to the investor, he has already mastered the art of formulating no answers. Calls, however, take a significant amount of time - on average, each call lasts about five minutes. The lazy investor got his business philosophy while working for the Bozeman wine company. She sold wine without specifying the source of raw materials or flavor notes, but her products were a bestseller. This taught Edmundson to focus on the big picture rather than small details. The essence of investing according to Edmundson is not the search for the most successful and promising assets with which you can guess and make good money, but a simple investment in indices. It is worth noting that the Nevada fund invested a significant part of the funds in this way before him. About 60 percent of the resources were invested in indices, but Edmundson brought the passiveness of investing to its logical conclusion. First of all, he fired a dozen external managers - they are simply not needed under his investment scheme. Gradually, the share of investments in shares investment funds(mutual funds) of stocks and bonds that work with indices, not specific securities, reached 100 percent. Edmundson showed unusual composure during the panic in the market associated with the exit of the UK from the European Union. On the day of the referendum, he left work at his usual 17:00 local time and went to bed without waiting for the publication of the final results of the vote. This Buddhist indifference to the outside world did not affect the income of his foundation. Be that as it may, Edmundson's work is very cheap for Nevada retirees. He himself receives a salary of 127 thousand dollars a year, which, by the standards of US financial circles, where top managers are regularly given multimillion-dollar bonuses, are mere pennies. In total, the fund's operating costs are $18 million a year, compared to $120 million for the average US pension fund. Everything ingenious is simpleIn fact, the example of Nevada is by no means isolated, although perhaps the most characteristic. More and more American investors - from private traders to the largest pension funds and donation funds - are switching to "passive finance". Over the past three years, active market funds have lost $1.3 trillion. These funds have flowed to companies betting on calm, risk-free growth strategies. It is explained simply. The services of hedge funds, where the purchase of each paper is carefully analyzed, are several times more expensive than the services of funds that simply invest in some stock or bond index. In addition, investors are attracted by the simplicity of investment schemes, which can be understood even without special financial literacy. The complexity of regulatory rules, growing year by year, also repels the customer from cunning investment plans. Finally, practice shows that simple, low-risk funds generally earn more. This is especially hard for hedge funds, which have always been proponents of active, analytical investing. Since 2008, they have not been able to outperform conventional mutual funds, and indeed the US stock market as a whole. As for large mutual funds, the share of active investors there is also falling - and very quickly. If 10 years ago, 84 percent of such funds operated on complex investment plans, now they are only 66 percent. Passive investment is viewed with great interest not only by state pension funds - after all, it is normal for them to pursue a conservative policy, but also by corporate services. In 2012, 19 percent of corporate pension funds opted for simple investment plans, whereas now this figure has risen to 25 percent. For charities, the increase was 23 percentage points, from 40 percent to 63 percent. Skeptics warn that risk-free investments that are effective at this stage can be extremely dangerous in the future. In particular, the success of passive investing is largely due to the constant growth of the US stock market in last years, which, in turn, is due to the policy of ultra-low rates. When this growth comes to naught, investment in stock indices doesn't seem like such a good idea. Representatives of funds that use complex strategies believe that the world is designed in such a way that it ultimately rewards those who invest actively and look for better options. Be that as it may, it is the “lazy investor” from Nevada that is on the horse so far - and with him the future pensioners of this American state. For those who have recently joined, I tell you how everything works here (instruction for beginners). Lazy investor is a service for busy people who have no time to dive deep into the analysis valuable papers to look for investment opportunities. Here a ready-made answer is given, what exactly to do at the moment on the Moscow Exchange for a long-term investor. How to use recommendations - the initial conditions of a lazy investor. Let's agree that the initial conditions are the following. The average investor has savings of 1,000,000 rubles, which he wants to invest in the Russian stock market. This money does not affect his current financial life, he is ready to invest it for a period of 5 years. At the same time, he is ready to replenish his portfolio by 90,000 rubles per quarter, or by 30,000 rubles monthly. If an investor wants to withdraw money from the stock market, he stops replenishing the portfolio. He can withdraw free money (or invested in bonds) immediately, and money invested in shares can be gradually transferred into bonds or withdrawn as shares are sold. Thus, he will most likely withdraw the entire amount within 5 years without losing on possible market corrections when it is not profitable to sell shares. It will also take the estimated return. Total: The strategy is designed for a long-term investor with an investment horizon of 5 years. Estimated long-term average annual return is 20%. If you are just now connected to a lazy investor Look at the current composition of the portfolio through the links
★5 "Safe investment term: from 5 years." matroskin, no one knows the future. Maybe in 5 years there will be no stock market. There is also such a possibility. But if we exclude a real nuclear war, some unlikely cataclysms, then on the horizon of 5 years, with a high probability, the portfolio will be in the black. The calculation is that we will manage the share of shares and bonds and periodically change their shares, as well as sell something inside the shares, buy something. This period is indicated so that those who want to make a quick profit in a month or two do not buy according to the recommendations, but it turns out that they need to sit in a position for a year and also increase it. 100% is nowhere. I draw conclusions comprehensively from personal experience, from literature with research on this topic, from communication with more experienced investors on Russian market. Well, if someone asks about Gazprom for 350 rubles, then I can answer this question. Stels, sorry, but this is all a little blah blah blah. There are quite formalized methods for calculating a portfolio, both from stocks and mixed ones, and it seems like studies show that a more or less safe horizon is 20 years. Something like there is about a 95 percent probability that a drawdown will go to zero. I forgot a little, but not 5! Why, in fact, the question arose, and how did you come to such a result, and even so boldly give it out to beginners? About Gazprom, this is banal, I’ll answer you myself, I sold it at 350. I started with 280, it seems, it was a long time ago) Who took it at 350 I’m very sorry. matroskin, I forgot to answer about inflation. The stock portfolio already takes into account inflation in the long run. Stels, that is, an average of about 30? I take off my hat and I will keep a close eye on the portfolio)) Stels, and by the way, Gazprom is 350 figs with him)) It would be interesting to look at Nikkei since 1990;) 27 years have passed and the index has not yet reached zero, of course this is an index, there is a basket (I mean that there will be selection and rebalancing) + divas + bonds. But 5 years is somehow cool, it hurts)) matroskin, matroskin, I answer all your comments above. Inflation is now around 3-4%. I mean, if it jumps to 50%, then the shares will gradually win back this too. The estimated yield is so that no one expects 50-60%, etc. At some point it will be higher, at some point it will be lower. Perhaps you are a more experienced investor than me. And I'm wrong about something. Maybe the wording is not correct picked up "safe". Of course, nothing is safe. But, perhaps, you do not take into account that the portfolio is replenished, dividends and coupons are reinvested. If you do this regularly, including in a falling market, it adds stability to the portfolio. But in any case, I will think about the wording, the indicated deadline and look again at what I have read on this topic. If it doesn't make it difficult, can you give the names of "formalized portfolio calculation methods"? By Nikkei. He was dear there. The share of shares was to be minimal. And yes, taking into account rebalancing, dividends, coupons, replenishments, everything is not as sad as it seems. But on the "safe date" I'll still brainstorm, since it's so striking. Stels, are you kidding? are you really going to manage your portfolio this way? what 3-4 percent? you take the average annual for at least 10-15 years! What does estimated return mean? why not 35? why not 5? How is it calculated? Average number? Yes, if the portfolio is replenished, then in fact, you are not particularly needed here)) it’s stupid even to buy the same Gazprom if you will get a plus sooner or later))) Of course, this adds stability, or rather, not even so. matroskin, essentially. Estimated profitability is calculated based on personal experience, from literature with research on this topic, from communication with more experienced investors in the Russian market. So it is counted. But this does not mean that it cannot be negative in some year. If you buy one Gazprom, then there will be no diversification. RTS is neither expensive nor cheap. Must watch individual shares, some are expensive, some are cheap, some are priced fairly. I have no goal to reveal all the methods and approaches. I manage a portfolio (https://intelinvest.ru/public-portfolio/9143/?ref=17237, ), you can watch it. Then a year or two will pass, there will be some kind of story about how he behaves. Stels, OK, in essence. What literature and what authors have you read? What are you guided by? I do not need a method, but a person who would trust you to manage money can at least ask these things. Right? matroskin, Upvoted your comment. Really glad to have our conversation, because ask really important questions. As I understand it, you are for the cleanliness of the ranks, which cannot but rejoice. Special thanks for mentioning Ramil. I looked for it, looked, at first sight, everything is perfectly painted, I will study it. In order not to produce a lot of answers that are not to the point, I take a break for a while to remember something, think it over and formulate everything. Not saying goodbye. Stels, mutually! Yes, indeed, I am for the purity of the ranks! I think cleanliness will benefit the entire industry and increase people's confidence in investments. matroskin, I'll go straight through the text of the previous comment so as not to miss anything. Stels, OK, in essence. What literature and what authors have you read? What are you guided by? I do not need a method, but a person who would trust you to manage money can at least ask these things. Right? I agree. I didn't want to reveal all the cards yet. But since there is such a lively interest, I will tell you a little more. Personally, I have been investing in my account using this method since November 7, 2016. Dynamics is positive. In the spring-summer fall of 2017, I bought more promising shares. But I focus not only on my own experience, but also on the experience of other investors who have been investing in individual stocks for more than 10 years. On a paid and free basis, I have access to the knowledge of more experienced colleagues. In general, I have been working in the stock market as a trader from December 2009 to the present, when I was 25 years old. I became seriously interested in the topic of investments in 2016, I have been showing interest to varying degrees since 2004. I don't have any official credentials. For books and authors. I started compiling a list so as not to stretch this comment here, I will make a separate post in the coming days with a list of books on investment topics that I have read, am reading and plan to read. Those. I have a post about books. You don’t need to talk about Gazprom and diversification. Here I’m talking banality. Don't understand what's wrong here? If you buy one Gazprom, the result will be worse than buying shares that are fundamentally and technically more attractive. And to form a basket of such shares, periodically making shifts. Nikkei in 1990 could also be described that way. Not expensive, not cheap, since there were probably both overvalued and undervalued stocks. That is a general answer, but you seem to be essentially ... For Japan. Quote "Japanese financial bubble- an economic bubble in Japan from 1986 to 1991, characterized by a multiple increase in prices in the real estate market and the stock market. This is the definition from Wikipedia, which contains almost the entire answer. In general, you need to look at the ratio of dividend yield on shares and yield on government bonds. Now in Russia, the dividend yield is 7-10%, in some cases more. And also, in some cases, dividends will increase, and hence the share price. For bonds within 8%. If the dividend yield approaches 5% or less, then this is one of the signs of the “high cost” of the market. Well, other factors also come into play. Therefore, we can say that the RTS (or MICEX) is not as expensive now as the Nikkei was in 1991, although I will not give you specific numbers, because. the essence is important. At the expense of my competence, I will answer this way. My target audience is a long-term investor, of course, preferably much longer than 5 years. Only this investor does not understand the stock market. As I, for example, do not understand computers well (although this is not an example for long-term investment, but it will do for understanding). It’s easier for me to ask a specialist, even if not the best on the market, but who understands much better than me why something doesn’t work, how to fix it, than to study the forums myself, etc. And this investor meets me on his way. For him, I will be a storehouse of knowledge. And he will be willing to pay me for my experience, time, etc., thus saving his time. I will deal with the details of services later. So far, I just announced that such a service exists. It is curious how you differ from Ramil Ibragimov, for example. About why I'm better than any other adviser, manager, etc.? I do not claim that I am better. Each has its pros and cons. Everyone has their own approach. In the future, I will refine both my approach and the description of my approach. Some will like it, some won't like it. This is logical and natural. At the moment, according to my recommendations, 4 portfolios of people from a close circle are being managed. Stels, since November 2016? Have you been trading since 2009? That is, how would the portfolio behave in 2008 and 1998, God forbid it happens again, you can't even imagine? With regards to Gazprom, I mean that they like to give an argument and a counterargument, they say that those who bought at 350, well, there are more or less ready-made answers. So that you don’t waste time on banality. Of course, if you take 1 tool, then the risks are higher. About Nikkei) do you understand that after 10 years they can write in the same way about a bubble in the stock market of the Russian Federation? And they will be able to justify it. But at the moment, a few can do it. Yes, of course, both divas and the growth of shares, this is all wonderful. I think in 1929 everyone reasoned like that too? And the fact that divas can fall and growth will be replaced by a fall, that there will be a wagon and a cart for bankruptcy)) Nobody knows what will happen in a year, let alone 5. About the storehouse of knowledge… There are smart people, very smart, but not rich. There are some evaluation criteria - LCHI, Bentley in the garage due to trade) Well, just kidding. You understand what's the matter, asking a computer specialist who understands a little better than me seems not the best option to me. There is a non-zero probability that he will be mistaken , and the computer will grunt at me. Here, either a pro or learn. Well, this is my opinion. I’m just already tired of meeting non-masters every day in real life. Builders, locksmiths, doctors. So I would still go to remove the appendicitis not to someone who understands a little better than me, but who will remove it and I will be healthy and alive! That is, there will be a positive result, and not some kind. You are a brave person. Good luck to you. I hope everything will be fine and people from your inner circle will not be disappointed) But in general, I agree with you that the RTS is not as expensive as the Nikkei. But! an opinion is an opinion. And according to the facts, you can talk about cheapness, just like you can fall further. We don’t know all the factors. falls with rare spitting upwards. And more than one year. Precisely because I take into account the history of the Nikkei of 1986-91, the crisis of 1929-32. in the USA, as well as other crises of the 20-21st century, I currently have about 50% of the portfolio in bonds, despite the fact that the portfolio is replenished. And due to the fact that the market can be falling and cheap, it happens. This approach takes this into account.About Secondary Resources, I can’t forgive for the 58th echelon. Especially for the D-list. You initially set a serious level of dialogue, and now you are indulging in such a dubious discussion. A company that is good for everyone does not have bonds trading at 2.5% with zero ACI. I would also understand the BSPB example, which has been trading well below its value for a long time with good reporting. About the storehouse of knowledge… There are smart people, very smart, but not rich. There are some evaluation criteria - LCHI, Bentley in the garage due to trade) Well, just kidding. Once again, I clarify that I am not currently engaged in active sales, cold calls, spam mailings, etc. And even if you did, if you do not see the necessary criteria for trust, then do not become a client, subscriber, etc. Everything is simple here. You see, what's the matter here, asking a computer specialist who understands a little better than me seems not the best option to me. There is a non-zero probability that he will make a mistake, and the computer will grunt at me. I’m just tired of meeting non-masters every day in real life. Builders, locksmiths, doctors. There are certainly sensible, but also full of mediocrity. I, and who will remove it and I will be alive and healthy! That is, there will be a positive result, and not some kind. To become a pro, you need to start somewhere. It will be too difficult to live, if at all possible, if you become a pro in any field of activity before you do something. Work with the pros, don't work with the untalented. You are a brave person. Good luck to you. I hope everything will be fine and people from your inner circle will not be disappointed) |
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