The government's point of view is that this fact should not dishearten Russians. On the contrary, sanctions should be viewed as a positive phenomenon, because long-term economic isolation will help develop its own production and improve technological advances, which, ultimately, will provide the country with an unprecedented economic recovery. By the way, it is already predicted in the new federal budget.

The draft document was published by employees of the Ministry of Finance of Russia on 10/12/2016, and it is he who will determine the structure of state revenues and expenditures for the next three years. The new budget is positioned as adapted to new realities, including low oil prices, declining cash reserves and "Western restrictions" economic growth. Let's take a closer look at what was included in the new Russian budget in order to find out the government's priorities.

Innovations in the State Budget of Russia

To date, the Russian budget has not yet passed the stage of final approval. But the main innovations and figures that characterize this bill can already be analyzed.

Among the main innovations are the following points:

The government intends to return to the old practice of adopting a unified budget for a three-year period (in 2016, the Russian economy was based on a one-year financial document). According to the opinion voiced by representatives of the Ministry of Finance, this step will ensure consistency and predictability in equalizing the accumulated budget imbalances;
A distinctive feature of the new document was the change in the structure of sources for financing the budget deficit. If in the current year 2/3 of the deficit was covered by funds taken from them Reserve Fund, then in the next three years, representatives of the Ministry of Finance propose to use less sovereign funds and more - borrowed funds attracted in the domestic market.

The revenue part of the budget of the Russian Federation in 2017

It should be noted that the revenue part in the 2017 budget is fixed at the level of 13.44 trillion rubles and differs slightly from last year's figure. Many economists say that if inflation expectations are also taken into account, then in real terms this part of the budget will continue its downward trend. In 2019, representatives of the Ministry of Finance predict an increase in revenue to 14.8 trillion rubles, which is a nominal historical maximum for the Russian economy.

Experts note that the planned growth is explained by the weakened positions of the ruble - the quotation of 71.1 rubles per 1 US dollar is included in the 2019 budget. Oil quotes included in the budget of the Russian Federation are forecasted at $40/barrel. In addition, it should be noted that in relation to the level of GDP, the revenue part will tend to decrease - in 2019 this share will be 15%.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov called ensuring income without additional tax reforms and raising the retirement age as the main goal of the government. It is quite possible that the tax sphere will undergo reforms in favor of easing the fiscal burden for business - first of all, this may affect taxes levied on entrepreneurs. Other experts attribute the government's optimism to entirely different reasons.

For example, Lyudmila Pronina, who holds the position of professor at the Department of Economics and Finance of the Public Sector of the RANEPA, says that the Ministry of Finance's forecasted growth in revenue is quite realistic. But she explains the likelihood of its execution by income from taxation on mining, which the Ministry of Finance has pledged in the amount of 300 billion rubles for 2017, and 200 billion each in 2018 and 2019. The second reason she calls a possible increase in excise duties.

The expenditure side of the Russian budget

Financing of expenditure items was proposed in the amount of 16.181 trillion rubles in 2017. It is worth saying that for the next two years this indicator was announced in a slightly smaller amount. So, in 2018, expenses will amount to 15.978 trillion, and in 2019 - 15.964 trillion rubles. According to Anton Siluanov, reducing the expenditure side of the budget is the only way to ensure budget consolidation.

Recall that the costs in the budget of the Russian Federation are divided into two parts: open and closed. The first of them in 2017 is planned in the amount of 13.31 trillion rubles, i.е. 18% of all spending will be classified. This is less than in 2016, when the level of "hidden" costs exceeded 22%. Moreover, the 2016 budget was adjusted in this aspect just before our eyes. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance explained this by some plans that provide for early settlement of loan obligations of defense enterprises.

If we consider the functional areas of expenditure item by item, we can draw the following conclusions:

It is planned to allocate 5.08 trillion rubles for the needs of social policy in 2017, 4.962 in 2018 and 5.054 in 2019. In this case, the government demonstrates a tendency to reduce social needs, explaining its actions by the need to save money;
the national economy will receive allocations in the amount of 2.3 trillion rubles in 2017. In 2018, it will be allocated 2.246 trillion, and in 2019 - 2.054 trillion rubles, that is, over the next three years, financing of the national economy will be reduced from 14.2% of all expenditures to 12.9%. It is rather strange that with a policy of cutting spending on this item, government financiers predict a rapid economic growth for the country. It is not entirely clear what reasons this growth can provoke - in the context of sanctions and an investment blockade on foreign investment cannot be counted, and local entrepreneurs cannot afford to take bank loans due to exorbitant interest;
the needs of national defense will be financed in the amount of 950 billion rubles. The indicated figure is the open part budget spending to this article. Taking into account closed items, which make up the gross part of defense spending, the industry will receive 2.84 trillion rubles in appropriations. In 2018, the allocations will amount to 2.72, and in 2019 - 2.856 trillion. In three years, funding will increase from 17.6% to 17.9% of the total expenditure part of the budget, which indicates a high degree of "militarization" this document. Experts emphasize that the only salvation for the country's budget is the implementation of structural reforms related to production and the reduction of military spending. Nevertheless, this recommendation of experts has been ignored by the government for many years now;
spending on national security and law enforcement is on the rise. The law enforcement agencies will receive 1.968 trillion rubles in 2017, 1.995 in 2018 and 2.007 in 2019. The share of these expenses in the budget will thus increase from 12.2 to 12.6%;
the costs associated with education, against this background, do not look so significant. The Ministry of Education can only count on 568 billion for 2017. In the next two years, this figure will increase slightly and leave 589 and 586 billion, respectively;
The health sector also does not cause particular concern for the government: in 2017, it is planned to allocate 377 billion rubles for it, and in 2018 and 2019 - 394 and 369 billion rubles each, respectively.

The analysis of hidden costs led to the following conclusions:

Government spending on so-called “other issues” will increase next year to 10% of the entire budget expenditures and amount to 1.62 trillion rubles, which exceeds the corresponding figure in 2016;
a subsection entitled “other issues” appears with enviable regularity in a dozen directions, of which it is worth noting 500 billion rubles planned for “separate subsidies” for companies and organizations and “separate intergovernmental transfers” allocated for regional budgets;
150 "secret" billion rubles will be allocated under the article "National security and law enforcement»;
items that include "other issues" and "hidden costs" together account for about 24% of the total expenditure part of the Russian budget.

About the budget deficit

The budget for the next three years is planned as a deficit. In 2017, this figure will amount to 2.74 trillion rubles (3.2% of GDP). Moreover, the government has not yet adopted the document, but is already considering possible amendments to this figure - recently the Ministry of Finance proposed to increase the budget deficit to the amount of 3.03 trillion rubles. According to some forecasts of economists, this figure may reach 3.26 trillion, moving close to the mark of 3.9% of GDP.

This value will be the largest gap in the last six years. Government experts unanimously say that the budget deficit is quite expected and Western sanctions are to blame, but they are confident that all problems can be overcome by finding additional sources income. First of all, financiers are hoping for some new military contracts that can resolve the budget deficit. At the same time, it is worth quoting the words expressed on this occasion by Vladimir Putin.

The President mentioned that it may be too early to adopt a three-year budget in the current economic conditions, but he maintains the healthy optimism of state financiers. At the same time, if we compare income and expenses, it becomes clear that, in comparison with the budget of 2016, the income planned for 2019 should increase by almost 1.4 trillion rubles, and the expenditure should decrease by 670 billion rubles. national currency.

It is also worth considering the high cost base current year. At the finish line, which has already reached the 2016 budget, the Ministry of Finance decided to increase expenditure items from 16.1 trillion rubles to 16.4 trillion. If we also take into account the fact that changes are expected in the consolidated budget schedule that will not be carried out through legislative amendments, then the total may reach 16.63 trillion rubles.

Financiers are more optimistic about the future, assuming that already in 2018 the country may reach a deficit of 2.2% of GDP, and by the end of 2019 will reduce it to 1.2%. At the same time, experts from the Fitch analytical agency say that Russia has not yet overcome its dependence on raw materials, and unstable oil prices, which so far have a characteristic downward trend, can hurt budget filling.

public debt Russian Federation

As already mentioned, public financiers are planning to increase the level of borrowing in order to cover the budget deficit.

Presumably, these will mainly be internal loans, which will amount to:

1.88 trillion rubles in 2017, which is two times higher than borrowings in 2016;
in 2018, domestic government bonds will have to give another 1.6 trillion rubles;
in 2019 - 1.7 trillion in national currency.

In addition, it is worth considering that in 2017 the maturity of the bonds, the total value of which is 829 billion rubles, is suitable. It is possible that the amount of placed federal loan bonds will amount to 1.9 trillion rubles. At the same time, Anton Siluanov noted that it is necessary to receive loans from domestic investors with a certain degree of caution so that they do not demand short-term bonds from the government on high stakes.

It is worth noting that the change in the sources of financing the deficit is not accidental. In 2017, they plan to take 1.15 trillion from the Reserve Fund, which means that this source will be completely exhausted. Rumor has it that if necessary, the government will turn to money from the National Welfare Fund. According to the plans of the Ministry of Finance, this source will have to give 660 billion rubles. in 2017 and 1.14 trillion. – in 2018. As for the possible replenishment of these funds, it is not planned until February 1, 2020.

The bar for borrowing in foreign markets is dropping sharply. It is planned to attract no more than 7 billion US dollars from external sources in 2017, and in the next two - another 3 billion dollars each, which corresponds to the level of the pre-crisis years. Commenting on this fact, Anton Siluanov noted that the country could spend a year without external borrowing, but the government should maintain the level of liquidity of its Eurobonds.

In 2017, the main financial institution countries will simply refinance their expiring debts. According to the plan, in 2017 Russia will have to buy valuable papers by 7.3 billion c.u. We note right away that many experts believe that the chief financier of Russia is disingenuous. The country will refuse external loans not because it does not need them, but because of the ongoing sanctions, which concern, among other things, the sphere of lending.

The volume of the total debt of the Russian Federation by the beginning of 2020 will increase, reaching 16.6 trillion. R. (16.8% of GDP), which exceeds the level of 2016 by 1.8%. In the next three years, the total amount of public debt will remain at a safe level. Although some economists are frightened by the comparison of the figures for external public debt, which is estimated at 55 billion US dollars, the amount of domestic debt (almost 9 billion rubles) and the amount of cash reserves, estimated at 5.5 billion rubles.

budget question and Chechnya

The planned budget aimed at cost savings has already caused discontent in some regions. Recall that after the draft was published, dissatisfaction with the reduction in funding for Chechnya through social network Instagram was expressed by Ramzan Kadyrov, who holds the post of head of this republic. The Kremlin responded to this statement with the help of Dmitry Peskov, who is the press secretary of the Russian president.

In his statement, Peskov noted that the country's economy is characterized by difficulties that are related not only to the federation as a whole, but also to its individual regions. The presidential speaker focused on the fact that the head of the country foresaw the emergence of discussion points, but the debate should be moved to the lower house of the Duma. The government cannot be guided by the dissatisfaction of individual federal subjects - it takes into account the interests of the entire country, despite criticism from the regions.

Not so long ago, Kadyrov said that if in previous periods the authorities of the Republic of Chechnya took into account the policy of total budget savings, today he is forced to criticize the budget project. Kadyrov recalled that the republic had not received funds for a long time within the framework of the federal target program concerning the restoration of the economic and social sphere of Chechnya. The reduction of the Chechen budget will not allow the republican economy to develop and will have a negative impact on social obligations.

Nevertheless, one cannot ignore the fact that during the years of Ramzan Kadyrov's leadership, Chechnya received subsidies and subsidies in the amount of 540 billion rubles from the federal budget, closing the top three Russian subsidized leaders (the first two places are occupied by Dagestan and Yakutia). The budget of Chechnya, and so on 80-87% is formed by deductions from the national budget. Moreover, according to Natalya Zubarevich, director of the regional program of the Independent Institute for Social Policy, Grozny distributes a significant part of the incoming funds in a completely non-transparent manner.

However, with a very solid amount of subsidies, the republic still manages to take 4th place among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of unemployment. Moreover, 53% of the total unemployed population are men of working age. At the same time, the level of monetary incomes of the population of the republic is steadily increasing, but most of them are modestly recorded under the article not “salary”, but “other income”.

In general, the budget can be safely called conservative. At least, it definitely does not provide for any drastic measures to resolve crisis issues, so, in fact, Russia will continue to eat up the remaining reserves. State financiers say that the budget for 2017-2019 will still be adjusted, and this will have to be done annually. Experts do not predict exacerbation of external risks for the country's economy, but they talk about the possibility of aggravation of internal risks.

In many ways, the viability of the RF budget depends on the oil market.

Blame the already mentioned oil prices. In addition, Russia is facing presidential elections, which, according to the Ministry of Finance, makes it impossible to plan expenses in advance. Although it is a little unclear why the cost of elections cannot be calculated and included in the future budget in advance. Nevertheless, Russians are assured that everything will be fine: inflation expectations will drop by almost 3 times with GDP growth of 2.4% by the end of 2018. However, even these statements cause a certain amount of skepticism among economists.

The draft new budget is still going through the final approval stages, because the document must be approved not only by the Ministry of Finance, but also by the Ministry of Economic Development before being agreed with the State Duma deputies. At each stage, the draft document will undergo several revisions, and only after that it will be made public as approved. financial plan countries.

However, one should not count on significant changes. Most likely, Russia will enter the new "three-year plan" with a conservative budget, and the government will hope that increased oil prices will at least slightly stabilize the economic situation and raise social standards for the population.

Law on the state budget for 2017

Certificate of the State Legal Administration

The federal law establishes the main characteristics federal budget for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019. At the same time, the main characteristics of the federal budget for 2017 are determined based on the projected volume of gross domestic product in the amount of 86,806.0 billion rubles and an inflation rate not exceeding 4.0 percent. The projected total volume of federal budget revenues is 13,487.6 billion rubles, the volume of expenditures is 16,240.8 billion rubles. The federal budget deficit is set at 2,753.2 billion rubles.

The federal law also approves the norms for the distribution of income between budgets budget system of the Russian Federation for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019, programs of state external and internal borrowings of the Russian Federation and state guarantees, determines the features of administering budget revenues of the budget system of the Russian Federation, features of the execution of the federal budget and writing off certain types of debt to the federal budget.

The State Duma adopted in the third, final reading the law on the federal budget for 2017-2019. 315 deputies voted for its adoption, 99 were against, the correspondent of Rosbalt reports.

According to the document, treasury revenues in 2017 will amount to 13.488 trillion. rubles, expenses - 16.241 trillion. rubles, and the deficit - 2.753 trillion. rubles. In 2018, these figures are planned at the level of 14.029 trillion. rubles, 16.04 trillion. rubles, 2.011 trillion. rubles, respectively. In 2019, revenues will amount to 14.845 trillion. rubles, expenses - 15.987 trillion. rubles, and the deficit - 1.142 trillion. rubles.

The budget for 2017 is based on the oil price of $40 per barrel. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, such an assessment of the level of oil prices is conservative, as it is significantly lower than the current consensus forecast for oil prices.

The share of oil and gas revenues of the federal budget will continue to decline from 37.4% in 2017 to 36% in 2019. Non-oil and gas revenues relative to GDP will remain almost at a stable level (9.7% of GDP in 2017-2018 and 9.6% of GDP in 2019).

In 2017, the average annual dollar exchange rate is expected to remain at the level of 67.5 rubles per dollar, in 2018 the exchange rate is predicted to weaken to 68.7 rubles per dollar, in 2019 - to 71.1 rubles per dollar.

In 2017, spending on general government issues is planned in the amount of 1.135 trillion. rubles, national defense - 1.121 trillion. rubles, security and law enforcement - 1.270 trillion. rubles, the national economy - 2.292 trillion. rubles, housing and communal services - 58.2 billion rubles, environmental protection - 76.4 billion rubles, education - 568 billion rubles, culture and cinematography - 94 billion rubles, healthcare - 377 billion rubles, social policy- 5.08 trillion. rubles, the media - 73.4 billion rubles, physical culture and sports - 89.7 billion rubles, servicing the public debt - 729 billion rubles, intergovernmental transfers - 783.5 billion rubles.

In the 2017 budget, the share of secret spending is 17.1%, with 11% of it going to sections not related to national defense and security.

Net capital outflow will increase from $20 billion in 2017 to $25 billion in 2018 and 2019. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, in 2017 the GDP growth rate will move into the positive area and amount to 0.6%, in 2018 the GDP will increase to 1.7%, in 2019 - up to 2.1%. By the end of 2017, inflation is forecast to drop to 4%.

It is predicted that the Reserve Fund will be fully depleted in 2017. The volume of the National Wealth Fund will be reduced from 4,702.3 billion rubles at the beginning of 2017 to 3,056.2 billion rubles at the beginning of 2020.

At the same time, due to significant state domestic borrowing, an increase in the volume of public debt is planned in the next three years. At the end of 2017, it will amount to 13,972.2 billion rubles, in 2018 - 15,177.1 billion rubles, and in 2019 - 16,651.9 billion rubles.

When considering the document in the second reading, the deputies redistributed 540 billion rubles for 2017 and more than 1 trillion. rubles for the period 2018-2019. In particular, it was decided to increase credit support for the subjects of the Russian Federation from the federal budget from 100 billion to 200 billion rubles. In 2017, the regions will also receive a separate type of subsidies - to ensure a balanced budget. Thus, Crimea will receive an additional 18.65 billion rubles, Sevastopol - 5.16 billion rubles, and Chechnya - 16.4 billion rubles.

Banks and agro-industrial complex will receive additional funds. So, credit organizations will be able to count on additional subsidies to compensate for the lost income they received from loans issued to agricultural enterprises. We are talking about the amount of 21.3 billion rubles in 2017, 17.6 billion in 2018 and 17.17 billion rubles in 2019. An additional 10.638 billion rubles will be allocated to support the agro-industrial complex.

Three Duma factions voted against the adoption of the budget - the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and A Just Russia. “The budget is not numbers, it is the fate of people, and this Trishkin caftan cannot be patched up, it will not fit on the shoulders of huge Russia,” said, in particular, the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Gennady Zyuganov. According to him, the government gave 2 trillion to save the banks. rubles, which "spread offshore". "According to official information, out of the 800 billion allocated for investments, only 3.4% was directed to investments," Zyuganov added.

He is convinced that "the crisis will only grow." "Ticks will continue to squeeze the throat of the country and all of us," the leader of the Communist Party concluded.

State Duma deputy from A Just Russia, Alexander Burkov, said that the country is "imposed on the budget of falling Russian economy". “The parents of this budget should be deprived of parental rights,” he said. According to the deputy, when drafting the budget, the government "saved 250 billion rubles on the elderly, while it wants to squeeze 150 billion on bonuses to officials."

State Duma deputy from the Liberal Democratic Party Aleksey Didenko noted that the new budget did not become the "budget of national salvation" and is adopted by United Russia practically without taking into account the opinions of other factions. “1 trillion. rubles was distributed by one faction, how can this budget be called the budget of national accord? - the deputy was indignant.

It should be noted that 47 extra-parliamentary parties were invited to consider the draft budget in the third reading, but they were not given the floor, but were offered to listen to the discussion on the Duma balcony.

State budget revenues in 2017

Important factors are taken into account when preparing a budget. This is the oil and gas component, the dollar exchange rate, the general world situation. Laying articles for the next three-year period, the authorities also paid attention to the existing sanctions of foreign states against our country and Russia's response to them.

The law that determined the budget for 2016 was an innovation, because traditionally the budget is determined for the next year and planned for another 2 years. But in view of the lack of clear forecasts and constant changes (not always for the better), the government did not dare to take responsibility for predicting 3 years ahead.

However, in 2016, the authorities seem to be optimistic, because in the coming weeks Russia's budget for 2017 will be adopted and funds for 2018 and 2019 will be pledged. The federal law will come into force on January 01, 2017.

Budget revenues and expenditures

So, according to the draft federal law, state revenues will amount to 13.4 trillion rubles. Expenses, in turn, 16.2 trillion. What do these numbers say? Yes, the state does not have enough money. Nominally, these are almost the numbers of 2016. Of course, inflation is also important, taking it into account, income, compared to the previous year, will decrease. According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, the state is able to reduce costs and increase the revenue component. The forecasts are quite good: if the Russian budget deficit for 2017 is 2.8 billion, then in 2018 it will be 2 billion, and in 2019 it will be 1.1 billion rubles.

Gross domestic product next year is projected to be 86.8 billion. By 2019, it is likely to rise to 98.8 billion.

In the process of drafting the law on the budget, the authorities repeatedly emphasized that the only way to stabilize the budget is to cut costs as much as possible. Moreover, such a policy is still in effect: the expected budget deficit in 2016 was to be 3.7 billion. However, amendments have already been made to reduce this figure. Now it is a little over 3 billion rubles. It is likely that in 2017 the deficit has a chance of reducing by more than 15%.

Where to get scarce funds

In 2016, most of the deficit was covered by the Reserve Fund. Now it stores almost 3 billion rubles. In 2017, the prospects for the Reserve Fund have already been determined: it will completely dry up. Therefore, this part of the funding had to be radically changed. Now the National Wealth Fund will be involved, the value of which is 4.6 trillion. In 2017, it will empty by 0.66 trillion, and in 2018 - by 1.2 trillion. rubles.

In general, the state seeks to reduce external borrowing and prioritize domestic borrowing. In terms of external debt, the Russian budget for 2017 in dollars will stop at $7 billion, and in subsequent years the upper limit of the loan will drop to $3 billion. Moreover, according to the authorities, even these figures can be borrowed on the domestic market, in foreign currency.

The Ministry of Finance, in an explanatory note to the draft federal budget law, indicated that the total public debt in the period 2017-2019 will not exceed a safe mark of 20% of GDP.

The structure of budget expenditures

The smallest part in the structure of expenditures for 2017 is occupied by such areas as education and healthcare (3.5% and 2.3%, respectively). The government promises to reduce the number of state-funded places in universities by more than 40%. Student scholarships will also be reduced. This measure is aimed at reducing the cost of education and will entail massive layoffs of researchers and teachers. In addition, the provision of the education development program is being reduced. In 2017, it will be cut by more than 20%.

14.2% fell to the share of the national economy. It is planned to increase the entrepreneurial ability of the population, thereby restoring economic growth, support some investment projects.

The budget in the housing and communal services sector is rapidly shrinking: in 2017 it is planned to allocate 58 billion rubles to this sector, and in 2018 only 28.8 billion rubles.

The budget of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia for 2017 will amount to almost 1968 billion rubles, which is 12.2% of the share of total expenditures. However, this department is waiting for significant changes, first of all, they relate to staffing. The requirements are becoming more stringent not only for professional qualities employee of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, but now the moral and psychological aspects of the personality of a single employee play a big role. These criteria were also introduced in part as conditions for staff reductions. By October 2017, the number of police officers may decrease by almost 10%. This means that 100 thousand employees will be left without work. Innovations will have little effect on employees working "on the ground", directly with the population (district, for example). The share of their reductions will not exceed 2%. Pleasant bonuses await those who remain in the ranks of the Ministry of Internal Affairs - a 5% increase in salary.

Since 2015, Russia has outlined a direct course to support and strengthen national defense. The military budget of Russia in 2017 will amount to 2840 billion in 2017. This is 6% less than in 2016, adjusted for inflation. It is worth noting the existence of the so-called closed, secret items in the budget. In the field of defense, 800 billion are planned for such an article. There are opinions that this money will be used for early fulfillment of obligations on loans to defense enterprises in order to save interest.

Social sphere

The tense global political situation makes citizens think about the future. Russia is going through hard times. The economy, one might say, is being reborn anew, and this entails the inevitability of costs in the form of a federal budget deficit. The people do not feel stable, and therefore they are already asking the question: what Russian budget for 2017 in numbers?

Important factors are taken into account when preparing a budget. This is the oil and gas component, the general world situation. Laying articles for the next three-year period, the authorities also paid attention to the existing sanctions of foreign states against our country and Russia's response to them.

The law that determined the budget for 2016 was an innovation, because traditionally the budget is determined for the next year and planned for another 2 years. But in view of the lack of clear forecasts and constant changes (not always for the better), the government did not dare to take responsibility for predicting 3 years ahead.

However, in 2016, the authorities seem to be optimistic, because in the coming weeks there will beand pledged funds for 2018 and 2019. The federal law will come into force on January 01, 2017.

So, according to the draft federal law, state revenues will amount to 13.4 trillion rubles. Expenses, in turn, 16.2 trillion. What do these numbers say? Yes, the state does not have enough money . Nominally, these are almost the numbers of 2016. Of course, inflation is also important, taking it into account, income, compared to the previous year, will decrease. According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, the state is able to reduce costs and increase the revenue component. Predictions are quite good: if Russian budget deficit for 2017will be 2.8 billion, then in 2018 - 2 billion, and in 2019 it will be equal to 1.1 billion rubles

The budget in the housing and communal services sector is rapidly shrinking: in 2017 it is planned to allocate 58 billion rubles to this sector, and in 2018 only 28.8 billion rubles.

The budget of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia for 2017will amount to almost 1968 billion rubles, which is 12.2% of the share of total expenses. However, this department is waiting for significant changes, first of all, they relate to staffing. The requirements are being tightened not only for professional qualities, but now the moral and psychological aspects of the personality of an individual worker play a big role. These criteria were also introduced in part as conditions for staff reductions. By October 2017, it may decrease by almost 10%. This means that 100 thousand employees will be left without work. Innovations will have little effect on employees working "in the field", directly with the population (district, for example). The share of their reductions will not exceed 2%. Pleasant bonuses await those who remain in the ranks of the Ministry of Internal Affairs - an increase of 5% to the salary.

Since 2015, Russia has outlined a direct course to support and strengthen national defense.The military budget of Russia in 2017will be 2840 billion in 2017. This is 6% less than in 2016, adjusted for inflation. It is worth noting the existence of the so-called closed, secret items in the budget. In the field of defense, 800 billion are planned for such an article. There are opinions that this money will be used for early fulfillment of obligations on loans to defense enterprises in order to save interest.

Social sphere

Latest news about the Russian budget for 2017concerning the expenditure side responsible for improving the lives of citizens are as follows: social spending will amount to more than 30% of the total budget, which is 5080 billion rubles in 2017. More than 4,000 billion rubles were allocated to the program "Social Support for Citizens". and, finally, 10 trillion rubles have been allocated for the development of the pension system.

The authorities note the need to review all programs, except social ones, in order to identify the most priority projects. In 2017, it is planned to implement 40 federal targeted programs. Those programs that do not fall under the funding will be waiting for their turn. Some programs will be abolished, but even in such difficult conditions, it is planned to launch 2-3 new ones.

The government, in the process of approving the budget, relied on the thesis that the search for new opportunities for additional funding is not a task that is relevant for the upcoming three-year period. The priority is to launch the reserve capabilities of the state. In other words, we should proceed from what we own, what resources Russia has to level the economy in the current conditions.

In general, experts say that the negative economic situation will continue in 2017. However, there is also the desire of the state to comprehensively develop a program for overcoming the crisis and improving the social situation. This gives the people faith in the coming of a better time and the hope that the financial course has been chosen correctly.

The government's point of view is that this fact should not dishearten Russians. On the contrary, sanctions should be viewed as a positive phenomenon, because long-term economic isolation will help develop its own production and improve technological advances, which, ultimately, will provide the country with an unprecedented economic recovery. By the way, it is already predicted in the new federal budget.

The draft state budget for 2017-2019 was published in October

The draft document was published by employees of the Ministry of Finance of Russia on 10/12/2016, and it is he who will determine the structure of state revenues and expenditures for the next three years. The new budget is positioned as adapted to the new realities, which include low, shrinking cash reserves and "Western restrictions" on economic growth. Let's take a closer look at what was included in the new Russian budget in order to find out the government's priorities.

Innovations in the State Budget of Russia

To date, the Russian budget has not yet passed the stage of final approval. But the main innovations and figures that characterize this bill can already be analyzed. Among the main innovations are the following points:

• the government intends to return to the old practice of adopting a unified budget for a three-year period (in 2016, the Russian economy was based on a one-year financial document). According to the opinion voiced by representatives of the Ministry of Finance, this step will ensure consistency and predictability in equalizing the accumulated budget imbalances;
• A distinctive feature of the new document was the change in the structure of sources for financing the budget deficit. If in the current year 2/3 of the deficit was covered by funds taken from the Reserve Fund, then in the next three years, representatives of the Ministry of Finance propose to use less sovereign funds and more - borrowed funds raised on the domestic market.

The revenue part of the budget of the Russian Federation in 2017

It should be noted that the revenue part in the 2017 budget is fixed at the level of 13.44 trillion rubles and differs slightly from last year's figure. Many economists say that if we also take into account and , then in real terms this part of the budget will continue its downward trend. In 2019, representatives of the Ministry of Finance predict an increase in revenue to 14.8 trillion rubles, which is a nominal historical maximum for the Russian economy.

Experts note that the planned growth is explained by the weakened positions of the ruble - the quotation of 71.1 rubles per 1 US dollar is included in the 2019 budget. Oil quotes included in the budget of the Russian Federation are forecasted at $40/barrel. In addition, it should be noted that in relation to the level of GDP, the revenue part will tend to decrease - in 2019 this share will be 15%.

The head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov called the main goal of the government the provision of income without additional tax reform and. It is quite possible that the tax sphere will undergo reforms in favor of easing the fiscal burden for business - first of all, this may affect taxes levied on entrepreneurs. Other experts attribute the government's optimism to entirely different reasons.

For example, Lyudmila Pronina, who holds the position of professor at the Department of Economics and Finance of the Public Sector of the RANEPA, says that the Ministry of Finance's forecasted growth in revenue is quite realistic. But she explains the likelihood of its execution by income from taxation, which the Ministry of Finance has pledged in the amount of 300 billion rubles for 2017, and 200 billion each in 2018 and 2019. The second reason she calls a possible increase.

The expenditure side of the Russian budget

Financing of expenditure items was proposed in the amount of 16.181 trillion rubles in 2017. It is worth saying that for the next two years this indicator was announced in a slightly smaller amount. So, in 2018, expenses will amount to 15.978 trillion, and in 2019 - 15.964 trillion rubles. According to Anton Siluanov, reducing the expenditure side of the budget is the only way to ensure budget consolidation.

Recall that the costs in the budget of the Russian Federation are divided into two parts: open and closed. The first of them in 2017 is planned in the amount of 13.31 trillion rubles, i.е. 18% of all spending will be classified. This is less than in 2016, when the level of "hidden" costs exceeded 22%. Moreover, the 2016 budget was adjusted in this aspect just before our eyes. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance explained this by some plans that provide for early settlement of loan obligations of defense enterprises.

If we consider the functional areas of expenditure item by item, we can draw the following conclusions:

• it is planned to allocate 5.08 trillion rubles for the needs of social policy in 2017, 4.962 in 2018 and 5.054 in 2019. In this case, the government demonstrates a tendency to reduce, explaining its actions by the need to save money;
• the national economy will receive allocations in the amount of 2.3 trillion rubles in 2017. In 2018, it will be allocated 2.246 trillion rubles, and in 2019 - 2.054 trillion rubles, that is, over the next three years, financing of the national economy will be reduced from 14.2% of all expenditures to 12.9%. It is rather strange that, with a policy of cutting spending on this article, government financiers predict the country will soon. It is not entirely clear what reasons this growth can provoke - in the context of sanctions and an investment blockade, foreign investment cannot be counted on, and local entrepreneurs cannot afford to take bank loans due to exorbitant interest;
• the needs of national defense will be financed in the amount of 950 billion rubles. This figure is an open part of the budget expenditures for this item. Taking into account closed items, which make up the gross part of defense spending, the industry will receive 2.84 trillion rubles in appropriations. In 2018, the allocations will amount to 2.72, and in 2019 - 2.856 trillion. In three years, funding will increase from 17.6% to 17.9% of the entire expenditure part of the budget, which indicates a high degree of "militarization" of this document. Experts emphasize that the only salvation for the country's budget is the implementation of structural reforms related to production and the reduction of military spending. Nevertheless, this recommendation of experts has been ignored by the government for many years now;
• rising spending on national security and . The law enforcement agencies will receive 1.968 trillion rubles in 2017, 1.995 in 2018 and 2.007 in 2019. The share of these expenses in the budget will thus increase from 12.2 to 12.6%;
• costs, against this background, do not look so weighty. The Ministry of Education can only count on 568 billion for 2017. In the next two years, this figure will increase slightly and leave 589 and 586 billion, respectively;
• The health sector also does not cause particular concern for the government: in 2017, it is planned to allocate 377 billion rubles for it, and in 2018 and 2019 - 394 and 369 billion rubles each, respectively.

The analysis of hidden costs led to the following conclusions:

• government spending on so-called “other issues” will increase next year to 10% of the entire budget expenditures and amount to 1.62 trillion rubles, which exceeds the corresponding figure in 2016;
• a subsection entitled “other issues” appears with enviable regularity in a dozen directions, of which it is worth noting 500 billion rubles planned for “separate subsidies” for companies and organizations and “separate intergovernmental transfers” allocated for regional budgets;
• 150 "secret" billion rubles will be allocated under the article "National Security and Law Enforcement Agencies";
• items that include "other issues" and "hidden costs" together account for about 24% of the total expenditure part of the Russian budget.

About the budget deficit

The budget for the next three years is planned as a deficit. In 2017, this figure will amount to 2.74 trillion rubles (3.2% of GDP). Moreover, the government has not yet adopted the document, but is already considering possible amendments to this figure - recently the Ministry of Finance proposed to increase the budget deficit to the amount of 3.03 trillion rubles. According to some forecasts of economists, this figure may reach 3.26 trillion, moving close to the mark of 3.9% of GDP.

This value will be the largest gap in the last six years. Government experts unanimously say that the budget deficit is quite expected and Western sanctions are to blame, but they are confident that all problems can be overcome by finding additional sources of income. First of all, financiers are hoping for some new military contracts that can resolve the budget deficit. At the same time, it is worth quoting the words expressed on this occasion by Vladimir Putin.

The President mentioned that it may be too early to adopt a three-year budget in the current economic conditions, but he maintains the healthy optimism of state financiers. At the same time, if we compare income and expenses, it becomes clear that, compared with the 2016 budget, the income planned for 2019 should increase by almost 1.4 trillion rubles, and the expenditure should decrease by 670 billion in national currency.

It is also worth considering the high expenditure base of the current year. At the finish line, which has already reached the 2016 budget, the Ministry of Finance decided to increase expenditure items from 16.1 trillion rubles to 16.4 trillion. If we also take into account the fact that changes are expected in the consolidated budget schedule that will not be carried out through legislative amendments, then the total may reach 16.63 trillion rubles.

Financiers are more optimistic about the future, assuming that already in 2018 the country may reach a deficit of 2.2% of GDP, and by the end of 2019 will reduce it to 1.2%. At the same time, experts from the Fitch analytical agency say that Russia has not yet overcome its dependence on raw materials, and unstable oil prices, which so far have a characteristic downward trend, can hurt budget filling.

State debt of the Russian Federation

As already mentioned, public financiers are planning to increase the level of borrowing in order to cover the budget deficit. Presumably, these will mainly be internal loans, which will amount to:

• 1.88 trillion rubles in 2017, which is two times higher than borrowings in 2016;
• in 2018, domestic government bonds will have to give another 1.6 trillion rubles;
• in 2019 - 1.7 trillion in national currency.

In addition, it is worth considering that in 2017 the maturity of the bonds, the total value of which is 829 billion rubles, is suitable. It is possible that the amount of placed federal loan bonds will amount to 1.9 trillion rubles. At the same time, Anton Siluanov noted that it is necessary to receive loans from domestic investors with a certain degree of caution so that they do not demand short-term bonds at high rates from the government.

It is worth noting that the change in the sources of financing the deficit is not accidental. In 2017, they plan to take 1.15 trillion from the Reserve Fund, which means that this source will be completely exhausted. Rumor has it that if necessary, the government will turn to money from the National Welfare Fund. According to the plans of the Ministry of Finance, this source will have to give 660 billion rubles. in 2017 and 1.14 trillion. – in 2018. As for the possible replenishment of these funds, it is not planned until February 1, 2020.

The bar for borrowing in foreign markets is dropping sharply. It is planned to attract no more than 7 billion US dollars from external sources in 2017, and in the next two - another 3 billion dollars each, which corresponds to the level of the pre-crisis years. Commenting on this fact, Anton Siluanov noted that the country could spend a year without external borrowing, but the government should maintain the level of liquidity of its Eurobonds.

In 2017, the main financial institution of the country will simply refinance the expiring debts. According to the plan, in 2017 Russia will have to buy back securities for 7.3 billion USD. We note right away that many experts believe that the chief financier of Russia is disingenuous. The country will refuse external loans not because it does not need them, but because of the ongoing sanctions, which concern, among other things, the sphere of lending.

The volume of the total debt of the Russian Federation by the beginning of 2020 will increase, reaching 16.6 trillion. R. (16.8% of GDP), which exceeds the level of 2016 by 1.8%. In the next three years, the total amount of public debt will remain at a safe level. Although some economists are frightened by the comparison of the figures for external public debt, which is estimated at 55 billion US dollars, the amount of domestic debt (almost 9 billion rubles) and the amount of cash reserves, estimated at 5.5 billion rubles.

The budget issue and Chechnya

The planned budget aimed at cost savings has already caused discontent in some regions. Recall that after the project was published, dissatisfaction with the reduction in funding for Chechnya through the social network Instagram was expressed by Ramzan Kadyrov, who holds the post of head of this republic. The Kremlin responded to this statement with the help of Dmitry Peskov, who is the press secretary of the Russian president.

In his statement, Peskov noted that the country's economy is characterized by difficulties that are related not only to the federation as a whole, but also to its individual regions. The presidential speaker focused on the fact that the head of the country foresaw the emergence of discussion points, but the debate should be moved to the lower house of the Duma. The government cannot be guided by the dissatisfaction of individual federal subjects - it takes into account the interests of the entire country, despite criticism from the regions.

Not so long ago, Kadyrov said that if in previous periods the authorities of the Republic of Chechnya took into account the policy of total budget savings, today he is forced to criticize the budget project. Kadyrov recalled that the republic had not received funds for a long time within the framework of the federal target program concerning the restoration of the economic and social sphere of Chechnya. The reduction of the Chechen budget will not allow the republican economy to develop and will have a negative impact on social obligations.

Nevertheless, one cannot ignore the fact that during the years of Ramzan Kadyrov's leadership, Chechnya received subsidies and subsidies in the amount of 540 billion rubles from the federal budget, closing the top three Russian subsidized leaders (the first two places are occupied by Dagestan and Yakutia). The budget of Chechnya, and so on 80-87% is formed by deductions from the national budget. Moreover, according to Natalya Zubarevich, director of the regional program of the Independent Institute of Social Policy, Grozny distributes a significant part of the incoming funds in a completely non-transparent manner.

However, with a very solid amount of subsidies, the republic still manages to take 4th place among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in terms of unemployment. Moreover, 53% of the total unemployed population are men of working age. At the same time, the level of monetary incomes of the population of the republic is steadily increasing, but most of them are modestly recorded under the article not “salary”, but “other income”.

Conclusions and forecasts

In general, the budget can be safely called conservative. At least, he definitely does not provide for any drastic measures to resolve it, so, in fact, Russia will continue to eat up the remaining reserves. State financiers say that the budget for 2017-2019 will still be adjusted, and this will have to be done annually. Experts do not predict exacerbation of external risks for the country's economy, but they talk about the possibility of aggravation of internal risks.

Blame the already mentioned oil prices. In addition, Russia is facing presidential elections, which, according to the Ministry of Finance, makes it impossible to plan expenses in advance. Although it is a little unclear why the cost of elections cannot be calculated and included in the future budget in advance. Nevertheless, Russians are assured that everything will be fine: inflation expectations will drop by almost 3 times with GDP growth of 2.4% by the end of 2018. However, even these statements cause a certain amount of skepticism among economists.

The difficult economic situation in Russia makes us think ahead about what kind of life awaits us ordinary citizens in the future. Future ordinary people directly depends on what policy the powers that be are going to follow in the coming period. Today we will learn about what will be the budget of Russia in 2017.

Features of the federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2017

As you know, the budget of the Russian Federation is being developed immediately for 3 years in advance, so now we can already talk about what Russia's budget indicators will be in 2017-2019. However, the figures in this budget, over time, under the influence of various factors and circumstances, can be changed, including the change in various budget indicators can be very significantly affected by world politics and the economy.

It should be noted that federal budget for 2017-2019., adopted by the State Duma - December 9, 2016 and signed by the President of the Russian Federation on December 20. The country's budget is calculated from many factors. Not the last influence on it is the dollar exchange rate, the general political situation in the foreign arena, etc. In addition, the imposed sanctions and retaliatory measures have a great influence on the country's economy. The adopted Federal Law on the Budget will come into force on January 1, 2017.

Russian budget 2017 in numbers

Income- amount to 13488 billion rubles.

Expenses- 16241 billion rubles.

Budget deficit- 2753 billion rubles. It is planned to reduce the budget deficit over the next 3 years to 1.1 billion rubles. Analysts expect that in 2017 the level of the budget deficit will decrease by 15%. However, everyone unanimously argues that this reduction can only occur by reducing state spending, including for the needs of the population.

Table of income and expenses of the budget of the Russian Federation for 2017

Friday, December 9th The State Duma adopted in the third final reading the draft federal budget for 2017 and for the planning period 2018-2019. State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin called it "optimal, but tough." 99 out of 414 deputies who voted voted against the adoption of the state budget. What is the controversial document and what are its main parameters, DW found out.

The deficit will continue. The reserve fund will be depleted

According to adopted law, budget revenues in 2017 will amount to 13.5 trillion rubles, expenses - 16.2 trillion rubles. The deficit is thus projected at 2.8 trillion. It is supposed to be financed from the Reserve Fund, which is expected to be exhausted as early as next year, as well as from the National Wealth Fund - by the end of 2017, 4.2 trillion rubles will remain in it.

GDP is expected to grow from 0.6% in 2017 to 1.7% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019. Inflation in the next three years is projected at 4%. The dollar/ruble exchange rate, on which it is proposed to rely, will be 67.5 rubles per dollar in 2017 and then will rise to 68.7 in 2018 and 71.1 rubles in 2019. The deputies included in the budget the price of oil in the amount of $40 per barrel. At the same time, the IMF gives a forecast for 2017 of $50.6 per barrel with subsequent growth, and the World Bank - $55.2.

Nevertheless, experts positively assessed the conservatism of the legislators' approach. As noted in the conclusion of the Institute economic policy named after Gaidar and RANEPA on the draft budget, "taking into account the existing risks and uncertainties, a conservative approach to the formation of the revenue part of the federal budget seems justified."

More than a third of all expenses- for defense and secretarticles

The budget assumes that defense and secret spending (mainly on the "National Defense" section, as well as on the sections "National Economy", "Health Care", subsections "Preschool Education", "Periodical Press" and others) will be reduced next year more than 20%. Military spending - up to 2.836 trillion, secret - up to 2.771 trillion rubles. Together, spending on these items is more than 15 times higher than spending on health care and almost 10 times on education.

As stated in the conclusion of the Gaidar Institute and the RANEPA, "among the countries not at war, Russia is one of the champions in terms of defense spending." So, according to experts, if the share of defense spending in Russian budget accounts for almost a quarter of all spending, then in the United States, which has a colossal military budget, this share is only 15%, and in Germany - 11%.

Experts also criticize the excessive number of secret articles that create the opacity of the budget. "The share of closed expenses is more than an order of magnitude higher than similar indicators public finance in developed countries", - the authors of the conclusion note. According to them, this contradicts the law "On State Secrets", which allows secrecy only for budget expenditures in the field of intelligence, operational-search activities, as well as in the field of countering terrorism.

For education andhealthcarewill spend all5,8% all expenses

Spending on education next year will grow by 2% - up to 568.5 billion rubles. At the same time, spending on the article " youth policy", which will amount to 2.3 billion. But allocations for preschool education will be reduced by 45.2% - to 3.2 billion, by general education they were cut by 38.3% - to 17.7 billion. The most expensive item is higher education. According to it, expenses will increase by 3.2% - up to 497.3 billion rubles.

Healthcare will receive from the federal treasury in 2017 almost a quarter less than this year - only 364 billion rubles. According to the experts of the Gaidar Institute and RANEPA, "the relative amount of government spending on health care in Russia is much lower than in developed countries and does not correspond to the real level. economic development countries".

Social spending is rising, poverty is not decreasing

More than 5 trillion rubles will be allocated for social policy in 2017 (28.2% more than in 2016). At the same time, experts point out that a sharp increase in allocations in Russia does not lead to a reduction in the level of poverty in the country. From 2008 to 2015, the number of the poor was 13.4% of the total population, despite the fact that over the years social spending has increased by more than 200%.

Context

Arseniy Mammadov, head of the budget policy laboratory at the Gaidar Institute, explained to DW that the problem is that the payments are not individual enough: “There are still quite a lot of categorical benefits, and targeted means testing is not enough. Large amounts as a result, they are spread over all recipients, while not all of them really need it.

Production costs are reduced, no development

One of the key complaints expressed by experts regarding the adopted budget is that, in the words of deputy Alexei Zhuravlev, it is a "budget of patience" and not development. One of the reasons is the reduction of so-called productive expenditures at a faster pace than non-productive ones.

The former, according to Arseniy Mammadov, include expenditures that lead to an acceleration in economic growth. These are mainly the costs of human resources (health, education, etc.), as well as infrastructure. To unproductive - the rest: for public administration, defense, etc.

By the way, spending on infrastructure in the coming years will be reduced, and especially significantly - on transport. In nominal terms, year-on-year declines in 2017, 2018 and 2019 will be 14%, 12% and 30%, respectively. According to analysts, this jeopardizes many infrastructure projects.

Vasily Koltashov, head of the Center for Economic Research at the Institute of Globalization and Social Movements (IGSO), told DW that, in his opinion, the Russian authorities, in principle, will not be able to solve economic problems and move to growth through widespread spending cuts. According to him, a radical change in the economic vector is needed in the direction of increasing costs and stimulating consumer demand and industrial production through this.

See also "How Russia accumulated and spent its Reserve Fund":