Year Ideal number of children Actual number of children 2.09 1.24 1999 2.09 1.17 2000 2.14 1.21 Analyze the data in the following table, draw conclusions about the current trend and its impact on the demographic situation.

Answers:

From this table, we can observe a downward trend in the birth rate, since every year the ideal number of children and the real number of children no longer coincide. This is due to the change in the position of women in society, with early marriages, where people are not ready to take responsibility. This negatively affects the demographic situation, as the ideal birth rate seems more and more unattainable every year.

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After analyzing the data presented in Table 3.3, we can draw the following conclusions about the structure of borrowed capital in 2006-2008.

The total amount of borrowed capital in 2007 compared to 2006 increased by 26429.11 thousand rubles or 80.26%, and in 2008 - by 163.10%. There were also significant changes in the structure of debt capital: the share bank loan decreased (in 2007 and 2008 it was completely absent), and accounts payable, which is temporarily used in the turnover of the enterprise until the time of its maturity, increased.

There have also been some changes in the structure of accounts payable. Its total amount increased in 2007 by 9.11%, and in 2008 by 46.94%. The largest share in the structure of accounts payable throughout the entire period under review was due to other creditors: 55% in 2006, 45% in 2007, 64% in 2008. At the same time, the amount of debt to other creditors in 2007 decreased by 12%, and in In 2008, it again increased significantly - by 111%.

Also, a large share in the structure of accounts payable falls on debt to personnel (25%, 33% and 23%, respectively) and debt on taxes and fees (13%, 12% and 7%). Despite the preservation of the structure, the amount of debt to personnel in 2007 increased by 47%, and in 2008 it decreased by 2%.

Thus, over the analyzed period, the total amount of accounts payable of the enterprise has increased significantly, which is explained by inflation and the process of development of the enterprise. However, in order to draw conclusions about the impact of this process on the normal functioning of the enterprise, it is necessary to analyze the ratio of borrowed capital to equity, which is not possible. A large share was also occupied by settlements between branches, which is explained by the peculiarity of the enterprise. At the same time, the structure of borrowed capital in 2006-2008 remained approximately the same.

Data for the analysis of the dynamics of the structure of the assets of the enterprise are presented in tables 3.4.

Table 3.4 - The structure of the enterprise's assets in 2006-2008

After analyzing the data in Table 3.4, we can draw the following conclusions about the dynamics and structure of the company's assets in 2006-2008.

Horizontal analysis of assets shows that their absolute amount in 2007 increased by 26429.1 thousand rubles. or 80.3%, and in 2008 - by 96810.1 thousand rubles (163.1%). If there were no inflation, one could say that the company is increasing its economic potential. In terms of inflation, this cannot be said, since fixed assets, the remains of work in progress capital construction are periodically revalued taking into account the growth of the price index. Newly received stocks are reflected at current prices, previously credited stocks - at prices valid on the date of their receipt. Funds in settlements, cash are not overestimated. Therefore, it is very difficult to bring all the assets of the balance into a comparable form and draw a conclusion about the real growth rates of their value.

Vertical analysis of balance sheet assets, reflecting the share of each item in the total balance sheet currency, allows you to determine the significance of changes for each type of assets. The data obtained show that the asset structure of the analyzed enterprise has changed quite significantly: in 2007, non-current assets increased by 10.5%, and their share in the asset structure decreased from 28% to 17%; sum current assets increased by 107%, their share in the structure also increased by 10%. In 2008, on the contrary, the amount non-current assets- almost 10 times. This happened due to a significant increase in the amount under the item "Construction in progress". At the same time, the amount of current assets remained practically unchanged. In the structure of the company's assets in 2008, the share of non-current assets increased, and the share of current assets, respectively, decreased by 50%.

In connection with this, the organic composition of capital has changed; in 2006, the ratio of working capital to fixed capital is 2.6, in 2007 - 4.9, which ultimately will help accelerate its turnover and increase profitability. And in 2008 this figure is 0.5, which may adversely affect the turnover.

To analyze the effectiveness of the implementation of the financial potential, we will analyze the liquidity indicators.

Short-term liquidity is divided into.

Ideal number of children
Real number of children
1991
2,02
1,73
1992
1,59
1,55
1994
2,00
1,40
1995
2,22
1,34
1996
2,21
1,28
1997
2,06
1,23
1998
2,09
1,24
1999
2,09
1,17
2000
2,14
1,21

Analyze the data in the following table, draw conclusions about the current trend and its impact on the demographic situation.

b) social behavior is based on patterns accepted in society, which include mores and customs. What is true?

em in theory.

1) problem; 3) abstraction;

2) hypothesis; 4) science.

2. The sociological service of the city of N. conducted a survey among students: "Patriotic moods of the student youth of the city." The survey results are presented in the table.

Answer options

Number of respondents (%)

Consider Russia a powerful power

Ready to serve in the army

Would like to move permanently to another country

Interested in political events in the country and participate in elections

Feel proud of their people

Analyze the table data. Select from the given list an erroneous conclusion that is not supported by the information presented in the table.

1) Every third respondent is ready to serve in the army and defend the Motherland.

2) A fourth of the respondents are interested in the political life of the country and participate in elections.

3) Every fifth person feels a sense of pride in his people.

4) Almost half of the respondents would like to go abroad for permanent residence.

3. Which of the following statements is scientific?

1) The planet Mars endows people with great organizational skills.

2) A person's life depends on which zodiac sign turned out to be ascending at the time of birth.

3) The planet Venus endows people with a love for art and creativity.

4) There is a hereditary predisposition to certain diseases.

4. Hairdressing salon "Charm" was created by N. and M. Her authorized capital consists of two shares, the sizes of which are fixed in the memorandum of association and the charter.

A. "Charm" is an example of a private sole proprietorship.

B. Hairdressing salon "Charm" is joint-stock company open type, owning property on the right of ownership.

5. General characteristic both scientific and religious knowledge is that they:

1) are of an objective nature;

2) presuppose evidence;

3) can be passed down from generation to generation;

4) are necessary for a person for production activities.

6. The value of the total volume of goods and services produced within the country produced during the year is called:

1) gross domestic product;

2) added value;

3) investments;

4) aggregate demand.

7. Relative truth differs from absolute truth in that

1) contains objective knowledge about the subject;

2) creates an ideal model for explaining the world;

3) may become obsolete and lose its value over time;

4) is the result of sensory and rational knowledge.

8. The family as a social institution performs the following functions:

a) reproductive;

b) leisure;

c) educational;

d) socialization;

e) erotic.

9. Which judgment is correct?

A. Only in activity is it possible to develop inclinations to the level of abilities.

B. Among the common intellectual features are increased flexibility of the joints, acute hearing, sonorous voice.

1) only A is true; 3) both judgments are true;

2) only B is true; 4) both judgments are wrong.

10. What area of ​​public life is the scientific study of the ocean floor for the construction of a permanent base there in the future?

1) political; 3) social;

2) economic; 4) spiritual;

11. If the population grows at a rate of 4% per year, and production grows at a rate of 8.5% per year, then the standard of living of citizens is likely ...

1) will remain unchanged;

2) will decrease;

3) increase;

4) will first increase and then decrease.

12. Which judgment is correct?

A. Human needs determine the scope, purpose and quality of his activities.

B. Ideal needs include the need for security and stability.

1) only A is true; 3) both judgments are true;

2) only B is true; 4) both judgments are wrong.

13. What type of family prevails in an industrial society?

a) extended family

b) small family

c) large family

d) nuclear family

e) temporary unregistered marriage.

14. The vital-practical level of outlook includes:

1) creation of a philosophical system of views on the world;

2) the formation of an intellectual attitude to the world;

3) raising children in the family;

4) the formation of worldview.

15. Which of the following indicators characterizes effective use workforce in market economy?

1) 100% employment of the population; Analyze the following statement by the prominent German Social Democrat K. Kautsky: “The task of science is not at all to give a simple

a picture of what is, a true photograph of reality, so that every normally organized observer can get the same picture. The task of science, on the contrary, is to find in an infinite mass of persons, phenomena, the universal, essential and, thus, to give the thread of Ariadne, with which one could navigate the labyrinth of reality. "Do you think this statement has anything to do with worldview Argument your conclusion.

Complete or incomplete? Why do we need to know how many of us, Russians? What threatens the current demographic situation in the country?

FAMILY DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN MODERN RUSSIA

Perhaps today there is not a single popular publication or mass media that would not sound the alarm in connection with the widespread crisis of the family and family values. Russia is no exception in this series. Is the situation of the family really so dramatic?

The data of statistics and sociological surveys give a rather contradictory picture of the state of the family in modern Russia.

On the one hand, there is an increase in the number of registered marriages. In 2001 it increased by 11% over the previous year and for the first time in five recent years exceeded 1 million. The situation in the "marriage market" is developing quite favorably. Based on the widespread age ratio of brides and grooms (the groom is older than the bride, as a rule, by 2 years), then in 2001 there was one potential groom for every potential bride.

However, the 2002 census showed that there were 10 million more women than men (77.6 million versus 67.6 million). There are 1147 women for every 1000 men. The predominance of the number of women over the number of men is noted from the age of 33. How can you not remember the popular in the 70s. 20th century a song about how girls stand on the sidelines at dances, “tugging handkerchiefs in their hands. Because for ten girls, according to statistics, there are nine guys.

To this we can add statistics from the latest census that out of 1,000 people aged 16 and over, 210 have never been married (161 in 1989); 572 are married (in 1989 - 653); 114 widows (in 1989 - 110); 94 are divorced (in 1989 - 72). (What conclusions can be drawn from the given data?)

Demographers record an increase in the age of those entering into marriage. They explain this fact by the desire of the newlyweds to find a financial and material basis for family life, to complete their education. This trend is typical for most developed countries, and it is clearly manifested in Russia.

Another recent trend is that the number of divorces is increasing all over the world. On average, 3,616 marriages and 1,534 divorces are registered daily in Russia, as a result, 1,288 children are left without one of their parents.

Among the motives for divorce, one of the first places is drunkenness or drug addiction of one of the spouses, then there are conflicts and scandals, bad relations with relatives of the husband or wife and their interference in the relations of a young family, adultery of a husband or wife, sexual incompatibility. In these motives, one can single out a common feature - the spouses' lack of proper socio-psychological preparation for marriage, the fulfillment of family roles.

Another noticeable trend is the increase in the age of parents at the time of the birth of the first child in the family. Postponing the birth of children, modern family people strive to make a career and achieve material well-being. If in a pre-industrial society the well-being of a family often directly depended on the number of workers in it, today the situation is changing radically.

Demographers believe that in order to ensure the stability of the population, it is necessary that the birth rate averages 2.5-3 children per woman. However, there are no grounds for implementing such an optimistic scenario in practice. In many ways demographic the situation is due to the predominance of the established type of family in the country.

According to sociologists, the model of a typical family in a modern industrial society is a complete, nuclear family (from Latin nucleus - core), consisting of one pair of spouses with children and being in a registered marriage, two working in the family. The average number of family members is 3.6 people. The modern family is undergoing significant transformations caused by profound shifts in the development of society. At the same time, it continues to occupy an important place in the life plans of young people.

Among the motives for marriage among young people, the following dominate: love, stereotype "do as everyone else", calculation. Modern young people prefer such features of their chosen ones as intelligence, kindness, decency, reliability, fidelity, love for children, modesty, patience. External attractiveness is far from in the first place. The female ideal is focused on enterprising, able to provide for the family financially, tactful, humorous men without bad habits. Men see the ideal of a wife in such virtues as fidelity, femininity, modesty, homeliness, good disposition.

The reduction in the average size of a family and the weakening of intra-family ties have a negative impact on its stability. In addition, functional shifts are taking place in the institution of the family: the effect of women's double employment, the loss of male prestige in the family due to changes in the nature and size of sources of well-being, and a decrease in the family educational function.

THE PROBLEM OF INCOMPLETE FAMILIES

We would err against the truth if the conversation about the modern family were limited to the model of the ideal family. Scientists of various specialties fix the growing "gap of family unity, violation of the structure of social roles, when one or more family members cannot accurately fulfill their role duties."

The most common deviations from the ideal family model are:
- an incomplete family group in which initially there is no one of the members (single mother with a child);
- a broken family due to the intentional departure of one of the spouses; annulment of marriage, separation, divorce;
- family experiencing a crisis caused by external events: the death of one of the spouses, imprisonment, etc.;
- the family is “like an empty shell”, when the spouses live together, but maintain only minimal contact with each other.

One of the relatively new demographic trends is the increase in the number of children born out of wedlock. For 1994-2000 their share increased from 19.6% of the total number of births to 27.9%. The age of mothers in illegitimate births has two peak values ​​- up to 20 years and 30-35 years. The first peak reflects a decrease in the age of onset of sexual relations, an increase in premarital pregnancies, the second - in many respects conscious motherhood in case of refusal to register a marriage by both some men and women. Curiously, according to the 2002 census, the number of women who indicated that they were
married, exceeded the number of married men by 65 thousand (according to the 1989 census there were 28 thousand). It can be assumed that many women who raise children outside of a registered marriage consider themselves married, while the fathers of these children are unmarried.

The growth of illegitimate births, on the one hand, and unregistered de facto marital unions, on the other, signifies a trend towards separation of the institutions of marriage and family. This trend has yet to be recognized by scholars of the family. However, it is obvious that the disintegration or weakening of family ties, the growth in the number of single-parent families in the country most adversely affect the performance of the family's basic functions. In an incomplete family, not only material problems arise more often that affect the economic and organizational function, but, more dangerously, there is a shortage of full-fledged family relations. In the absence of one of the parents, the child cannot always get full communication, fully satisfy the needs for joint leisure activities, and feel psychological security.

In addition, in an incomplete family, the function of socialization is realized in a truncated form, since the child is deprived of a positive role model in mastering the role of a family man. In order not to repeat failures in the organization of family life in the future, children from single-parent families have to learn from their own mistakes and from the mistakes of their own. parents.

Incomplete families cannot fully fulfill the reproductive function, which inevitably affects the general demographic situation.

MODERN DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Scientists state with alarm that rather complex trends are observed in the demographic situation of Russia. Let's name the most significant of them.

The number of Russians is decreasing.

Population Russian Federation is 145.2 million people. According to this indicator, our country ranks 7th in the world after China, India, USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan. However, Russia is losing its place in the global demographic hierarchy. By the end of 2001, Russia's share of the world's population had fallen to 2.4%, and this decline continues. Compared to the 1989 census, the population has decreased by 1.8 million.

The population of Russia has not been reproduced since the mid-1960s. 20th century

Over the past century, our country has gone through several periods when the reproduction of the population was "narrowed", that is, did not provide growth. Two of these periods were associated with catastrophic mortality during the years of world wars. The years of mass repressions also took their toll.

After World War II, infant mortality declined rapidly, while birth rates declined. And since the mid-1960s. the birth rate fell below the level of simple reproduction of the population. Currently, Russia is experiencing the consequences of the fact that children born during this period of "narrowed" reproduction have become parents themselves. A sharp drop in the birth rate in the 1990s. only aggravated the already unfavorable situation with the reproduction population. But even if today it were possible to return to the birth rates that existed before this fall, say, to the indicators of 1965-1985, this would not lead to the restoration of a positive natural increase in the country's population. return over high birth rate late 1930s or at least early 1950s, when more than half of Russia's population was rural, is now unlikely.

That is why now the main and practically the only mechanism that can be used to counteract the rapid decline in the population of Russia is immigration. However, its possibilities are not unlimited. The reception of a large number of migrants in general, especially foreign-speaking migrants associated with other cultural traditions, is far from a painless process, and in the conditions of the current economic condition and the social climate in Russia is not doubly painless. Today's migration problems are one of the new challenges that Russia will have to meet in the 21st century.

Basically, the population is declining due to its natural loss , i.e., the excess of the number of deaths over the number of births, and also due to emigration to foreign countries.

In 2000, the death rate was 15.3 per 1,000 people. Among the most common causes of death, experts name circulatory diseases, oncological, cardiovascular diseases and accidents. Negative on life expectancy Russian population alcoholism and drug addiction. These causes of death are noticeably younger. The level of male mortality is 4 times higher than the level of female and 2-4 times higher than in the economically developed countries.

Reducing the working population. According to the census, the population of working age (men - 16-59 years old, women - 16-54 years old) was 61%, younger than working age - 18%, older than working age - 21%.

Thus, the situation that has developed with the population in Russia at the present time is assessed by experts as depopulation - narrowed reproduction and population decline.

The social consequences of depopulation are associated with the prospect of a reduction in labor potential, the economic activity of the population, and its aging. Population aging, in turn, creates additional requirements for development social security, medical care for the elderly. Even in economically developed countries, with an increase in the proportion of older people in the population pyramid, governments are forced to increase the retirement age. Another side of the population aging process is the aggravation of the problem of the loneliness of the elderly, their alienation from the younger generations.

Depopulation and a decrease in the birth rate have a negative effect on the so-called infantilization growing up generations. Excessive guardianship of children, which is common in small families, increases the risk of raising an egoist, closed in on his own interests, without a sense of responsibility and independence. It is impossible to recognize as positive for the development of society the prospect of a growing rupture of ties between generations. The solidarity of generations, their mutual assistance and cooperation in an incomplete or small family are weakening, joint domestic work is losing its significance.

Is there a way out of the current demographic situation? The official Concept of the demographic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2015, approved by the Government of Russia in September 2001, states that "the goals of the demographic development of the Russian Federation are population stabilization and the formation of prerequisites for subsequent demographic growth."

PRACTICAL CONCLUSIONS

1 Studying the problems of the modern family will help you consciously relate to your own life scenario, in which a full-fledged family is likely to play a significant role.

2 It should be borne in mind that the tendency to limit the only child in the family contributes to depopulation. It creates a serious risk of becoming an egoist from such a child. Depopulation and a decrease in the birth rate have negative consequences for the health of the nation. The predominance of first-borns among those born in itself means a deterioration in the psycho-physiological characteristics of the population, since first-borns have worse health indicators compared to subsequent ones and children.

3 The prospect of an aging population forces you to think in advance about who and how will provide for you in old age. The state, based on the emerging relationships between generations, is moving to a funded pension system. You will have to save more and more for your old age if the trend of reducing the number of children in the country continues.

4 It is also important to remember: in order to live a long time, one must maintain health and interest in life for many years, and in this, not the last role belongs to a full-fledged happy family.

DOCUMENT

From the Concept of Demographic Development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2015 (approved by the Government of Russia in September 2001).

The tasks of the demographic development of the Russian Federation are:

in the field of health promotion and increase in life expectancy of the population
- increase in life expectancy of the population;
- increase in the duration of a healthy (active) life;
- improving the reproductive health of the population;
- improving the quality of life of chronically ill and disabled people;

in the field of stimulating the birth rate and strengthening the family - the creation of prerequisites for increasing the birth rate;

Comprehensive strengthening of the institution of the family as a form of harmonious life of the individual;
- creation of conditions for self-realization youth ;
- ensuring targeted social protection of the family, including the provision financial assistance at the birth of a child;

in the field of migration and resettlement

Regulation of migration flows in order to create effective mechanisms for replacing the natural decline in the population of the Russian Federation;
- increasing the efficiency of the use of migration flows by achieving compliance of their volumes, directions and composition with the interests of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation;
- Ensuring the integration of migrants into Russian society and develop tolerance towards them.

QUESTIONS AND TASKS FOR THE DOCUMENT

1. What are the main goals population policy Russian Federation.
2. What measures are aimed at preventing the negative consequences of depopulation?
3. Assess each of the tasks envisaged by the Concept for regulating migration from the point of view of the emerging demographic situation.

SELF-CHECK QUESTIONS

1. What trends in family development can be assessed as unfavorable? What is an incomplete family? Like an increase
Does the number of incomplete families affect the demographic and social situation in society?
2. What characterizes the current demographic situation in Russia?
3. What factors have had a negative impact on the current demographic situation in Russia?

TASKS

1. There is an opinion that incomplete families correspond to the characteristics of the development of society in the industrial and post-industrial era. Do you agree with this point of view? Justify your answer.

2. Analyze the data in the following table, draw conclusions about the current trend and its impact on the demographic situation.

Ideal and actual number of children per woman.
Russia, 1991-2000

3. The Concept of the Demographic Development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2015 notes: “The general trend in the dynamics of mortality in the country's population is characterized by supermortality among people of working age, among whom about 80 percent are men. The death rate among men is four times higher than the death rate among women, and two to four times higher than in developed countries.

What are the demographic consequences of such a situation? What measures proposed in the Concept (see document) are aimed at overcoming the negative consequences?

4. Agree or argue with the poet.

Must be afraid of widow's tears,
You have not tied yourself to anyone with love.
But if a formidable fate took you away,
The whole world would put on a widow's veil.
In her child, a mournful widow
Favorite features are reflected.
And you do not leave the creature,
In which the light would find consolation.
Wealth that wastes
Changing place, remains in the world.
And beauty will vanish without a trace
And youth, having disappeared, will not return.
Who betrays himself
Doesn't love anyone in this world!